By Joe Quillen
Tuesday 12/12/2023 – Parx Race 6
Welcome back everyone as we try to decipher a 2-year-old race at Parx Racing today as we’ll look at the sixth race, which is a Pennsylvania-bred maiden special weight race (i.e. horses that never won a race) going 6 furlongs.
Weather conditions will be much better than they were on Monday in Bensalem. I thought the races would be cancelled because the Philadelphia area, as was most of the eastern seaboard got tons of rain. I even thought that I had my confirmation when I finally woke up Monday morning when I heard the windows in my bedroom rattling to the hard winds that came in behind the storm. Alas, the races still ran, and I was fooled again. The track conditions were muddy, but with all the wind, it should be dry today.
This is a race where you have to know your breeding, which I am not great at, and look at some of the added stats that the Daily Racing Form has added over the last few years on their past performances.
Of the horses that I like that have made at least one start, I’m going to go with the 6 Face the Facts (3/1 morning line). He bobbled at the start of the race, tried to rush up, and couldn’t keep up with a 1/5 favorite winning rather easily. It will also help that he won’t be on the rail which will probably be dead after all the rain here.
The 3 Luka D is a first time who runs for Robert (Butch) Reid who wins at a 23% clip this year, and wins with horses on their first start at 28%, wins 22% of races he enters 2 year olds in, and more. The workouts are looking good as well.
The 2 Luv Ya Blue is another first timer here where with a 25% trainer in Juan Carlos Guerrero and a jockey in Paco Lopez who wins at 27% at Parx out of 322 races and 22% for the year. This gelding should be ready to go.
The 1 Kuz It’s Chilly is trained by Parx Hall of Fame trainer Scott Lake and wins 21% of the time with first time starters. Works look okay here, and I just think this horse may just need a race.
Bad Bad Mr. Brown (#5, 7/2 ML) rallied for second against a runaway favorite in the same race that Face the Facts ran in. He could be progressing to a win here.
The 4 Standpoint (4/1 ML) shortens up from a mile and seventy yard race a couple of weeks ago, and the test will be whether or not he can sprint or not. He ran much better going two turns.
The 7 Eddie W (12/1 ML) changed barns since last time out, and this colt was not a factor last time out. I’ll pass here.
I think Face the Facts will be on the lead, and if not, will be stalking right at the hip of one of the leaders, who may be one of the first time starters I mentioned. I think Bad Bad Mr. Brown will be late on the scene to get second, while the first timers 3 Luka D and 1 Kuz It’s Chilly will hit the board. I’ll go 6-5-3-1 and my play is $10 to win on the 6 Face the Facts. Good luck everyone!
One good (or bad thing) about taking the Monday races off was the fact that my stats are up to date. There were no winners over the last few days, and through 18 “bets” through 15 articles, I am in a $167 hole. Yes, there’s room to improve, and hopefully that will be the case starting today!
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