Quills Picks Winners – Thursday 1/11 – Aqueduct Race 7

By Joe Quillen

Thursday 1/11/24 – Aqueduct Race 7

Aqueduct

After a race Tampa Bay Downs, we had to New York for Thursday’s Quills Picks Winners. Today’s race is the seventh race on an eight-race card at Aqueduct. We have nine fillies and mares aged four-year-olds and up heading to the gate, but we have a rare, coupled entry on our hands today for this six-furlong test.

Before I get to this race, I will tell you that every state has different rules with their races, coupled entries and things like that. As it has become more and more rare for race tracks to have coupled entries, you do see this come up from time to time, as is the case on Thursday.

To tell you the truth, I don’t know all the rules for the New York Racing Association and for the state of New York. It appears for this race the 1 Starship Defiant and the 1A Taming the Tigress (5/1 morning line) is coupled because both the horses are trained by David Jacobson, though they do appear to be different owners.

I say appear to be different because David Jacobson is the listed owner of the program of the 1, while Winning Move Stable and David Jacobson co-own the 1A. The jockeys in this race, Isaac Castillo, and the jockey of the 1A, Eric Cancel, will be wearing different jockey silks.

I am expecting a ton of speed in this race. All the inside horses, the 2 Stonewall Star (5/2 ML favorite), Desert Dalliance (8/1 ML) and 4 Peak of Chic (8/1 ML) should be going for the lead. The 7 Downtown Mischief (3/1 ML) appears to be adding fuel to the fire if everything goes as planned. This is going to be setting things up nicely for the coupled entry.

It appears that the 1A Taming the Tigress (5/1 ML) appears to be the better horse of this entry, but she’s coming back from about a 10-week layoff. The 1 Starship Defiant is second race back from a two-month layoff. The 1A is 3 for 6 winners with a second and third at today’s distance, which will benefit her.

One rule I do know that NYRA has is that if one part of a coupled entry is a late scratch, then the entire entry is scratched, and the remaining horse runs for purse money only. This is done because there are times where bettors do complain that the horse that they really liked in the entry is the scratched horse, and as a result, this allows them to get their money back at the very least, or if there’s enough time, change their wager to a different horse.

Enough of what NYRA and the state of New York do with coupled entries. I’m going to have a conditional wager here. You will have to see the scratches coming into this race. The initial indication is that both these horses in the coupled entry will run. One clue that both horses will run is when these horses get entered and coupled, they have different jockeys named. If the same jockey was named, then one of them is planned to be scratched. Things can change but that’s why I am going with a conditional pick here.

If one of the horses are scratched, my play is $20 to win on the 1. If both are entered, then my play is $20 to PLACE on the coupled entry. I know. For those that are reading this article and are somewhat seasoned in the game you make be asking what the heck am I doing.

The reason why I am playing $20 to place in the event both horses in the entry run, because if the entry finishes first AND second, then the place pool only pays to one betting interest. So, you might see a chance here that this coupled entry will pay $12 to win, based on the morning line odds, and potentially more than that to place.

I know, this looks like a sucker bet if both horses run, and trust me, I’ve played my fair share, but I must scratch the itch. Let’s do something I don’t normally do and see if we can hit this conditional bet. Good luck everyone!

QPW Update Desk

  • Wednesday’s QPW selection Glitter Bay finished eighth in the finale at Tampa Bay Downs. The horse was scratched down to nine horses after three horses were scratched early on Wednesday.
  • The next points race on the road to the Kentucky Derby is next Saturday (1/20) which is the 
  • Be on the lookout for some additional articles and features coming up in the next couple of weeks. I do have some things that I am working on at the moment that I can’t wait to share.

Follow Joe on Twitter/Instagram/Threads @JoeQuills. Check out the Bleacher Brothers Show from 8 to 10 pm Eastern Time on the Tony Bruno Sports Network app!

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