By Joe Quillen
Kentucky Derby Preview and Predictions
The sun shines bright on my ol’ Kentucky home. That will be heard with about 10 minutes to post time, but it will be the spotlight that will shine as the weather may prevent the sun from shining down on the Louisville racetrack for the Run for the Roses on Saturday. But don’t worry, the race goes on as the world will have their eyes on the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs.
We have a full field of 20 horses for this rite of passage. The 9 Encino was scratched, allowing the 21 Epic Ride to run. The 22 Mugatu was an also eligible that was scratched since no other horses in the main field was scratched.
The horse in the first post position has not won since Ferdinand broke from the inside in 1986. But I will argue that if you have a chance, you have a chance with the new gate that came to Churchill Downs in 2019. No longer do you have to worry about running straight into the rail. Now you just have to worry about the horse to your right breaking in on you.
That’s what the 1 Dornoch (20/1) will face around 6:57 pm Eastern time. He could have the best chance at winning from that stall in years because the horse next to him the second choice #2 Sierra Leone (3/1) settles towards the back of the field and make his run as they head to the final turn.
The 3 Mystik Dan (20/1) probably settles as well like he did winning in the mud at Oaklawn in the Southwest, but he did settle some in the Arkansas Derby as well.
The 4 Catching Freedom (8/1) did run well in the slop at the Fair Grounds in February where he had late traffic trouble. He closed strongly in the Louisiana Derby where he had another strong closing rush, this time with less traffic.
The 5 Catalytic (30/1) finished second to Fierceness’s (#17, 5/2 ML favorite) runaway win in the Florida Derby. We know Fierceness will go for the lead but he has a good race/bad race vibe and his Florida Derby race is off the charts great. Catalytic has only three races and one around two turns.
The 6 Just Steel (20/1) has the most races (11) under his belt but has only won twice. Did get enough points to get in for legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He’s training old school in a world of resting and going for the big prizes.
The 7 Honor Marie (20/1) may just do what Sierra Leone is expected to do. He will settle near the back and make a similar strong run at the end. What could be even more intriguing is counting how many times the experts on NBC on Saturday say “she” instead of “he” because of the name. I know this past week I’ve had to correct myself in my articles and race preparations by using the wrong pronoun!
The 8 Just a Touch (10/1) has been near the front in all three races. He would have won the Blue Grass if Sierra Leone wasn’t running, but I am wondering if he goes for the lead with some of the other horses.
The 10 T O Password (30/1) should go for the lead, but he is the Japan Road to the Derby mystery horse. He has only run twice, and good luck finding video of his two races, and yes, it took forever for me to find his win at Nakayama in March.
The 11 Forever Young (10/1) is the more known Japanese horse as he took the Middle East route to the Derby getting the 100 points from the UAE Derby win in Dubai. He had everything against him in that race. He was in the far outside gate, was wide both turns and still drew off. This is probably Japan’s best chance to win the Kentucky Derby as Japanese horses have won big races all around the world in the last few years.
Track Phantom (#12, 20/1) has only known one way to run and that is on the lead. He will do the same thing here today and add to the speed duel up front.
The 13 West Saratoga (50/1) raced the longest first appearing in a maiden race at Keeneland in April 2023, but he looks like he could be near the front as well. But could he move up in the slop with Exaggerator as his sire who was 4 for 5 lifetime with a second including the Preakness, Santa Anita Derby and Haskell; and Curlin who is a superior wet track sire in my opinion as the grandsire.
The 14 Endlessly (30/1) never ran on the dirt, having run his first four races on the turf in California before winning on the synthetic at Golden Gate Fields and Turfway Park. He’s never trained well for the dirt according to handicappers, but I think that he has a chance to put things together here.
Domestic Product (#15, 30/1) won that weird running of the Tampa Bay Derby where the tote system crashed and they ran very slowly like it was a NYRA turf race. He won a blanket finish but I don’t like him being the horse training up to this race the last two months. But Chad Brown knows his stuff, right?
The 16 Grand Mo the First (50/1) started with two synthetic races at Gulfstream and a turf race at Santa Anita. I don’t think he’s fast enough to keep up.
The 18 Stronghold (20/1) won the Santa Anita Derby with a closing kick there, but there are questions about his distance limitations. His sire Ghostzapper turned into a Breeders’ Cup Classic champion, but his damSpectator was a sprinter.
The 19 Resilience (20/1) has run his best races stalking the pace and won the Wood Memorial going away. But he will have to do a little better to win, and being way wide on the first turn might kill his chances.
The 20 Society Man trailed Resilience in the Wood but would be a big surprise winner.
Epic Ride draws in to the field with Encino’s scratch and will wear the lavender 21 saddle cloth that Rich Strike wore to win the Derby two years ago. He tried to settle in the Battaglia at Turfway and just missed. His first foray on the dirt was okay, but I think he’s going for the lead as well.
With a race like this, no one will be able to predict this race to a tee. Don’t be scared by 20/1, 30/1, 40/1 or higher odds. There are more betting options in terms of runners in this race than any other race in North American thoroughbred racing. Mage was 15/1 last year when he won. Most years, 6/1 has been the off odds favorite in the Derby.
There is going to be so much dead money in this race from casual bettors because West Saratoga is a gray horse or Fierceness is a peronality a bettor wishes he or she had in his or her life or you like either Alphaville’s or Rod Stewart’s song ”Forever Young”. And those bettors will get dumb luck go their way and win. Doesn’t it always happen that way?
I think this race will set up for the closers. There is way too much speed with Dornoch, Track Phantom and Fierceness just to name three horses in this field. If you think Sierra Leone is a top four horse, you have to add Honor Marie and Catching Freedom who have shown they will handle the mile and a quarter and races against he other in some combination over the last couple of months. I’ll throw in Endlessly because this is a totally off the wall selection that I think will get into the top four and make that superfecta pay a nice five-figure dollar amount.
I will call this race 7-4-2-14. As I finished writing this article on Friday afternoon, Honor Marie is 13/1 according to TwinSpires with about $2.2 million in the win pool. There’s going to be many millions more wagered in the win pool. That will change one way or the other or stay around the same range as we get closer to the greatest two minutes in sports.
My wagers are as follows:
- $20 to win on the 7 Honor Marie
- $1 superfecta box 2, 4, 7 & 14. That will cost you $24.
Good luck in all your wagers and hope you enjoy this year’s Kentucky Derby, the historic 150th edition of the Run for the Roses.