By Joe Quillen
Saturday 4/20 – Laurel Race 10 (Federico Tesio Stakes) & Oaklawn Race 11 (Oaklawn Handicap)
Happy Saturday everybody, and hope everyone is having a great weekend so far. If you are reading this, you are probably reading this after the premiere episode of “Also Eligible”. If you missed it, don’t worry because it will be on every Saturday morning at 10 am Eastern time on the Bleacher Brothers Twitch account, Facebook, and YouTube accounts as well as listening on the Sports Radio 102.9FM The Game app on both Apple and Google Play stores.
These are the two races I looked at today, and if you watched or listened to the show, I had an idea of having a theme. One of the races today, the Federico Tesio at Laurel Park, and tomorrow’s Illinois Derby, both are eligible for the Preakness if they are nominated for the Triple Crown. Let’s begin with the Tesio at Laural Park as we have eleven horses going postward around 5:09 pm ET.
Favored in this mile and an eighth race for three-year-olds is the 7 Lat Long (5/2 morning line) who was overmatched in the Blue Grass two weeks ago at Keeneland, but that was after not racing after 10 weeks. He could have a bounce back race here, but I question the quick turn around here.
The 11 Copper Tax (7/2 ML) won the Private Terms going two turns here at Laurel. He’s going to have to deal with the turn coming up quickly while on the outside here, but he has not gone for the lead since returning to the races two races back at Tampa Bay in the Sam F. Davis. He was very wide on the final turn and closed while eight wide to win in the slop.
Copper Tax will see some familiar horse flesh in this race. The 10 Inveigled is right next to Copper Tax, and he wasn’t as far back and not as wide as the 11 was. He look a tough loss there losing the race in the final strides.
We also see the 1 Speedyness who is a local horse who attracts my attention here because of trainer Jamie Ness who is winning at a 24% clip so far in 2024 (103 for 429). He is adding another 110 yards to the last race, but he did get caught by today’s two outside horses. There is some speed, but Speedyness has the rail here.
The 5 Classic Joke (30/1 ML) and the 8 Malinois (30/1 ML) are both that appear to want to be on the lead. But I just wonder if they can get the lead. If they do, how far will they last?
The 3 Circle P (8/1 ML) might be worth a look here. He’s third race off the layoff, and he was also in the Private Terms last time out. Don’t be surprised he gets a better trip here because he was wide around both turns, three or four wide on the first turn, and at least eight wide on the second turn making a powerful move. He shared bumps with Copper Tax, but it was nothing worthy of an inquiry or objection.
The 9 Carolo Rapido won going two turns last time out breaking the maiden and stretches out a sixteenth to today’s distance. He didn’t show much at Aqueduct two back going nine furlongs, but could be improve after breaking the maiden?
There’s going to be some sort of a speed duel here. I think Circle P has the opportunity here to not be near the crown of the track as they turn for home. A similar move by him will get him to the winner’s circle over Copper Tax and Inveigled. I’ll call this 3-11-10-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 3.
Oaklawn Handicap
Like the Tesio, the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap is a mile and an eighth race and it also has eleven runners, but we do have some differences. This race is for older runners and we may have rainy conditions, so handicap accordingly for this race that goes off around 6:52 pm Eastern time.
The 10 Skippylongstocking is the lukewarm 3/1 morning line favorite here, and he comes to Oaklawn after a win in the Grade 3 Challenger at Tampa Bay Downs. He is third race off of the layoff and will be near the pace here like he usually is.
Skippy may even be on the lead because there is no obvious horse that consistently goes for the lead. The 4 Octane may be up there as he was close to the pace and held on to win the Razorback last time out. He should be near the pace or on the lead here.
The 1 Highland Falls (9/2 ML) may be a few lengths behind the leaders, but he shortens up from his last run in the Santa Anita Handicap last month. He had a mild rally last time out and could have a better kick here.
The 5 Red Route One (7/2 ML) is a stone cold closer here who will be about 10 lengths or so and then pass everyone in the stretch. He has done it time and time again and could do it yet again after his New Orleans Classic win last month.
Reincarnate (#6) is an interesting choice here for me. He is shortening up here, and I wouldn’t be surprised that this Baffert colt just goes for the lead and tries to go gate to wire. But truthfully, I wouldn’t be surprised that he’s stalking and draws off. Bob Baffert wins so many big races at Oaklawn Park that it’s borderline silly.
I think Bob Baffert gets another win at Oaklawn Park as Reincarnate wins here. He will hold on with Red Route One flying like he usually does. Let’s call this race 6-5-2-1 and my play is $20 to win on the 6. Good luck everyone!