Kentucky Oaks Contenders (Part 2)

kentucky oaks

By Joe Quillen

We will look at the next four fillies who will be running in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday afternoon at Churchill Downs

#5 Thorpedo Anna (5/1)

  • Broke her maiden in her debut race as she made a powerful move on the turn to win this seven furlong maiden race at Keenelend in October
  • Won easily by nine lengths at Churchill two weeks later while closer to the pace down the backstretch of the one-turn mile. Made another powerful move on the turn to draw off easily as a very heavy favorite
  • Had trouble getting out of the gate at the end of November at Churchill in the Golden Rod (G2). Was contesting the lead at the top of the stretch but was no match for Intricate that day
  • Came back from a four-month layoff and won going away at Oaklawn in the Fantasy (G2). She stalked behind the early leaders and made what has become her customary move on the final turn and drew off. Great race when needed first race off the layoff.

Do have some concerns with the breeding here as her sire Fast Anna was a sprinter and his offspring are only getting 6.2 furlongs per win. However, her unraced mare Sataves is getting 7.2 furlongs per win from her offspring. But Thorpedo Anna is definitely a player in this race, and could be dangerous second race off of the layoff.

#6 Lemon Muffin (30/1)

  • Did not show that much in her debut at Keeneland in October, but you could argue she tried to make a move but had some traffic issues
  • Slow start and appears to swerve inward in her first start at Churchill. Does show a late kick here to get second as she found a way through a wall of juvenile fillies
  • Appeared to have a cleaner start at Churchill. Had clear run down the stretch but could not get to the winner
  • Ran in the New Year’s Eve opener at Oaklawn and made a strong rail move on the turn. Tipped out but was beaten to the wire by a filly on the far outside.
  • Ran on the slop at the end of January at Oaklawn. Was closer to the pace and was outfinished by a filly on the outside again.
  • Goes around two turns for the first time in the Honeybee (G3). Was behind the front runners on the first turn. Made a three-wide turn and dueled with Tapit Jenallie and won as a maiden. Bumped her rival down the stretch and survived a jockey’s objection.
  • Did not show much in the Fantasy (G2) at Oaklawn. Tried to make a rail move but didn’t have that kick that she was showing in previous races.

Don’t know what to expect from Lemon Muffin. I’m not expecting much as that Honeybee wins feels like a fluke.

#7 Fiona’s Magic (30/1)

  • Stumbled at the start in her debut in July at Gulfstream. Might have even bumped the rail in the stretch. Good effort despite the trouble.
  • Came back from a four-month layoff, had a better start and went for the lead. Drew off in the stretch.
  • Went for the lead, and dueled to the top the stretch and drew off to win in early December
  • Ran next in February in the Forward Gal (G3) at Gulfstream. Looked like she hopped slightly and gunned for the lead. Was passed on the turn by R Harper Rose but continued to run to the end
  • Won the Davona Dale (G2) going a one-turn mile in March. Was very game and held on to win.
  • Went two turns in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) and dropped anchor entering the final turn. There was a big time duel up front while she was three or four wide on the first turn and backstretch

Fiona’s Magic’s sire St Patrick’s Day ran twice on the dirt in the US and finished in Ireland on the grass. The early numbers from St Patrick’s Day’s limited offspring so far suggests sprinting just like what her races suggest as well. Pass.

#8 Tarfia (7/2)

  • Drew off in October at Keeneland in her debut. She got room near the end off the turn and won easily
  • Tarifa was not happy in the gate in the seconds before starting the race at Churchill in an optional claimer in late November. She looked to go outside but couldn’t get the move she wanted and rode the rall and then dropped back.
  • Tarifa returned to the Fair Grounds and ducked down along the rail in deep stretch to win an optional claiming race in late January. Didn’t look like she’d get by the 10/1 shot who took the lead on the inside before she shifted in to win
  • Drew the rail for a sloppy Rachel Alexandra (G2) and she rode the rail to the top of the stretch and took over at the 1/8 pole to win by almost 3
  • Steadied and bumped at the start of the first turn in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Stalked Our Pretty Woman and took the lead and held on to win.

Tarifa is bred to go a long way on the main track, but I wasn’t that impressed with her last three races. She’s 4 for 5, but there’s a reason why she’s a lukewarm 7/2 favorite.

That’s part 2 of my series of horse information. Next will be horses 9-12.