NCAA Tournament Preview: FAU – Northwestern
It was just a year ago the FAU Owls took on March Madness for the first time since 2002 and were underdogs in every round. Now a year later, in a matchup against Power 5 Northwestern, FAU is seeded higher and come in as the favorites in this matchup, although by a slim margin.
Following an unfortunate loss to Temple in the AAC tournament, Owls fans were left on the edge of their seats wondering if they would make it into the field of 68, as some bracketologists began to question their overall body of work. The NCAA committee ended up valuing the Owls regular season more than people anticipated and it resulted in the Owls going from out of the field to some, to an 8 seed.
That loss to temple for FAU was a revert back to their style of play when they lost 3 games in February, as the team rode a big game from Vlad Goldin in the first half to an early lead, however shooting struggles eventually cost them, as temple shot 50% from 3 and FAU shot 17%. The offense became stagnant at times in the second half as while Temple was making everything on one end of the court, FAU was only able to get consistent offense from a Vlad down low.
When the Owls are at their best is when they are able to get scoring from a variety of different players from both inside and out, and against Temple the inability to do that made it difficult to come back when Temple was cashing in from all over the court.
Coming from the Big 10, Northwestern had a much more comfortable feeling about getting an at-large bid than FAU did following a round 1 70-61 loss to Wisconsin in the conference tournament. That was also in part because their regular season resume was quite strong and featured wins over NCAA tourney teams Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, and Nebraska.
Those wins came on the shoulders of Boo Buie who has carried the load offensively in a majority of games this season for Northwestern. The grad student is averaging 19.2 points per game and in the wins against tournament teams led the way offensively each game, scoring 31, 19, 29, and 22 respectively. In similar fashion to FAU, the Wildcats deploy 3 main scorers in Bouie, Brooks Barnhizer, and Ryan Langborg, with Buie leading the way, especially late during games in similar fashion to Johnell Davis.
Injuries have left this team a bit depleted, as Ty Berry and Matt Nicholson will both be out and the injuries have caused the offense to become stagnant at times and, especially when Boo Buie is off shooting wise. In the conference tournament game against Wisconsin, Buie scored 29, however outside of him only Barnhizer scored in double figures and the offense as a whole struggled and dealt with foul trouble.
Defensively, the ‘Cats were able to slow the game down, forcing 10 turnovers and holding Wisconsin to 70 points. Although they forced the badgers into their brand of basketball their own offensive struggles were too much to overcome.
Northwestern will be looking for another big game from Buie and will be looking for its other players to stay out of foul trouble and provide relief when needed. That relief will eventually be needed, as Buie has played at least 37 minutes in 8 of the last 9 games for the Wildcats and at some point, one will have to wonder how much gas is left in the tank.
The style of basketball that the ‘Cats deploy, is one that FAU will be looking to get away from, although Vlad, Johnell, or Alijah are capable of taking over games on their own, the Owls are dangerous when a different player can go down and get a bucket on any given possession. Vlad will have an advantage in this game with the ‘Cats down Nicholson and it’s important for them to capitalize on that, however when Northwestern crashes it’s important for FAUs off-ball players to move around the perimeter and look for open shots and also tire out the Wildcats 6-man rotation.
The Owls motion heavy offense has the ability to hurt the Wildcats in a variety of ways, as outside of the usual threats of a motion offense, Northwestern is down 2 huge rotation pieces, and if FAU is moving around off the ball consistently it could potentially tire out the ‘Cats. That will be contingent upon FAU making shots as a result of their off-ball movement, as if the Owls are struggling with their shot, Northwestern won’t have to close out as fast.
Defensively, FAU will have to find a way to slow down Buie and that will start with fighting over screens and closing out on shots a lot more consistently than they were able to do in their last game against Temple. The Owls will be looking to slow down Buie early and get him out of rhythm, and force other wildcats players to beat them, which so something that hasn’t been easy for the ‘Cats.
Offensively, Northwestern will be looking to have Buie lead the way, but also find ways to get consistent scoring from other other guys. Nick Martinelli a 6 ‘7 forward is someone that the ‘Cats may be looking to get going, as his size and ability to attack the paint with a deadly floater is something that could potentially hurt the Owls if he is able to get going. He scored 27 in a win against Maryland, and also had 7 rebounds showing his athletic ability to attack the paint as a forward.
On the other end of the court, the ‘Cats will be looking to limit entry passes to Vlad and disrupt the flow of FAUs typical offense by forcing them to hit their second and third options. Northwestern will also be looking to disrupt the FAU offense by limiting their off-ball motion and stifling the Owls plays before they even begin. It will be tough to accomplish, as to do that throughout the game will require a lot of stamina, and Northwestern is already down 2 key rotation pieces, but if they are able to limit the motion even somewhat it will provide a defensive boost.
This is going to be a closely contested battle between two extremely competitive teams that bring a lot to the table. It will come down to which side is able to dominate the tempo of the game and control the flow. If FAU is able to shoot the lights out of the building early that won’t bode well for Northwestern, however if the ‘Cats are able to slow down the game and limit FAUs early offense it could help them lull the owls into a low scoring defensive battle.
The oddsmakers and statisticians agree that it will be a closely contested game, as FAU is currently a 74-73 favorite on KenPom, and a 2.5-point favorite on most Betting apps.
Owls and ‘Cats fans can watch this game on CBS at 12:15, with Ian Eagle, Bill Rafferty, and Grant Hill on the call.