By Joe Quillen
Keeneland Race 9 – Maker’s Mark Mile
We stay at soggy Keeneland for their featured race which is the ninth of ten on their Friday card. We will look at the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile, which will be a mile race that is scheduled for the turf. Post time is for approximately 5:16 pm Eastern time.
For those that are new to horse racing and this column, races like this are usually taken off the turf course and moved to the main track when there is rain or has been rain at the track. Tracks want to run in optimal conditions, which would be a firm turf course. But with the rain over the last few days at Keeneland, the turf will probably be yielding or soft. Management will do everything they can to keep the race on the turf, as removing the race will remove the Grade 1 status of this race.
Favored in this race is the defending Breeders’ Cup Mile champion the 4 Master of the Seas (4/5 ML) who is a stone cold closer. He probably needs some horses to gun for the lead in this race, but there appears to be no front running speed here. But this looks like a pack of horses turning this into a furlong and a half to three furlong sprint to the finish.
The 5 Kubick (20/1 ML) won after returning to the races at Tampa Bay Downs after a 10-month layoff. He’s familiar with running on soft turf and has won on it. His sire Dubawi has his offsprings wins at 21% (20 for 94) on wet turf races, and the dam Rosa Bonheurhas her offspring winning at a 36% clip on wet turf courses (4 for 11).
Your eyes are not deceiving you with the 7 Du Jour (4/1 ML). That is a Bob Baffert horse running in Kentucky. Remember, Baffert is banned from Churchill Downs Incorporated tracks. Keeneland is not part of CDI, so Baffert can run his horses here. If we have a herd of horses going around the track, I think he will be more towards the back of that group. But he did win last time out after a four month break at Santa Anita on a good turf course which would qualify as a wet track for the Daily Racing Form’s statistical purposes.
The 8 Integration (9/2 ML) might be a default front runner in this race. He was closer to the pace in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational at Gulfstream at the end of January. He finished fifth in that race, but the question is how will be handle softer turf.
The 3 Naval Power (10/1 ML) won in Dubai on a wet turf last time out and comes to the US and looks like he might be a sneaky choice. He’s shortening up to a mile here which might be helping him here.
I think this race will boil down to who can kick home the best in a race devoid of speed. I am swinging for the fences here with Kubrick outkicking Master of the Seas. I will call this 5-4-3-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 5. Keep my eye on Twitter (@JoeQuills) again today and I will try to update you in the event that my top pick is scratched, especially with conditions that are not optimal.
Good luck everyone, and I will be back tomorrow with another Quills Picks Winners!
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