A Week 14 matchup between the Bengals and Cowboys looked intriguing when the league released the schedule.
Not many expected these teams to be near the bottom of the pecking order in the playoff picture.
Cincinnati (4-8) and Dallas (5-7) have a 2% chance of reaching the postseason according to NFL.com’s playoff predictor.
With such a grim outlook, these defenses could be particularly vulnerable.
As a result, this is a matchup where offenses are in line for big numbers, so it’s no surprise that we have a total of 49.5.
The Bengals have the more fluid offense and would be in a better spot in the standings if not for quite a few bad breaks. We’ll explain why bettors should expect the Bengals to jump out to a fast start on Monday night.
–Joe Burrow has been elite
Per TeamRankings, the Jets (-2.7) are the only team with a worse luck factor than the Bengals (-2.4).
That metric suggests that, with a little better luck, the Bengals could have had an additional 2.4 wins on the year.
They’ve gotten excellent play at the quarterback position from Joe Burrow, who leads the league with 30 touchdowns while only throwing five interceptions.
Burrow’s play has been so good that he even ranks second in Total QBR with a 74.2 value. Given the importance of the position, it’s rare that you see a quarterback with such a high Total QBR on a team that’s four games under .500.
It’s worth noting that Burrow still managed to put up these prodigious numbers despite not having one of his best wide receivers, Tee Higgins, for five games.
Higgins is now back with the team, which should help Cincinnati’s all-gas and no-brakes offense.
-Prop Play
It’s a night for the receivers in Dallas, a duel that spotlights No. 1 targets CeeDee Lamb and Ja’Marr Chase.
Lamb was slow to return to the practice field midweek but is ready to go and will be active against a Bengals’ defense with no true No. 1 cornerback. He’ll be targeted early and is a bargain for two-plus catches on the opening drive (+350).
We are resisting that early wager based on the number of variables at play and Cooper Rush’s wild inconsistency working from the pocket.
But both offenses will get plenty of yards and air it out, making the two-player prop for these wide receivers an easy decision.
Prop pick: CeeDee Lamb alternate receiving yards, 70-plus; Ja’Marr Chase alternate receiving yards, 90-plus (+285, FanDuel)
–Bengals’ offense is their best defense
Given Burrow’s performances, the Bengals have no choice but to lean on him to get the offense going. Cincinnati has the fourth-highest pass-play rate (64.3%) in the league, mainly because its defense can barely stop a nosebleed at this point.
Moreover, the Bengals have the fourth-worst defense by DVOA standards. They particularly struggle against the pass, which the Cowboys offense will look to take advantage of after posting back-to-back wins to snap a five-game losing streak.
Considering that Dallas also has the third-highest pass-play rate (64.9%), it’s no secret what these offenses will try to do once they get on the field.
While Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush has looked better in his last few games, there’s no comparison between him and Burrow.
The Bengals are in a position where they can’t relax on offense because of their leaky defense. They should have plenty of success against a Dallas team that struggles to get stops inside the red zone, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on a league-worst 76.9% of their trips.
When you combine that with Cincinnati having the second-best red zone offense (71%), it could be a long night for the Cowboys’ defense.
However, the number that stands out the most is that the Cowboys’ defense gives up an average of 20.7 first-half points per game to visiting teams.
That stat is simply too good to pass up, making the Bengals’ first-half team total of 13.5 points a play worth targeting on Monday night.
Best Bet: Bengals 1H team total over 13.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media