The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Phoenix for the first time this season. Team Penske looks like the favorite to give Ford their first win of the season while Chirstopher Bell wants a three-peat.
Bleacher Brothers has broken down the best value picks and locks for Sunday’s race at Phoenix.
All odds are via Draftkings.
Outright Winner Value Picks
Ryan Blaney (+650)
Putting the 12 team at the top of this list makes the most sense. Blaney is the odds on favorite to win and that is for good reason. He has not finished lower than fifth since 2022 and has an average finish of 2.8 in the 6 races the Gen-7 car has run at Phoenix.
Kyle Larson (+700)
Cliff Daniels and Larson had the best 25-lap & 30-lap average speeds during practice on Saturday. If the runs can stay long, then the 5 camp has a great shot at victory on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick (+750)
During practice on Saturday, the 45 team was top seven in all lap averages. Reddick does not have a win at Phoenix yet, but four top-tens since 2022 proves he can be there late when it matters.
Top Three Value Picks
Joey Logano(+220)
Just like many of the other drivers on this list, Logano’s lap averages from practice are the reason why he has good value for a top three. His 25 and 30 lap averages were top three on Saturday.
Ross Chastain (+550)
While the 1 camp is not a favorite for this weekend, they have history that says otherwise. Chastain has the third highest finish among all active drivers at Phoenix and has three top fives since 2022.
Zane Smith (+7000) LONGSHOT
This pick is not meant for those who are looking for a probable win. In his three starts at Phoenix the 23-year-old has an average finish of 33rd. The ONLY reason he is on the list is because of what he did during practice. The 38 team was top five in 15, 20, 25, and 30 lap averages on Saturday.
Top Ten Picks
Michael McDowell (+135)
Fading McDowell seems like the better option, but all three Spire Chevys were fast during qualifying. The 71 team was top ten in all lap averages during qualifying. Since 2022 McDowell also has two top-tens out in the desert.
Denny Hamlin (-165)
While the 11 camps average finish this year is 17th, Hamlin needs to find something before he is in a competition for the final couple of playoff spots. His best finish at Phoenix is 8th, but with a couple of friends within his manufacturer, there should be no reason Hamlin struggles on Sunday.
Chris Buescher (+110)
The #17 RFK Ford had finished within the top-ten four out of the last six races at Phoenix. While he did not make a lot of noise during practice, Buescher’s early lap averages were top-11.
LOCKS
Ryan Blaney Top-Three (+175)
William Byron Top-Five (-120)
Tyler Reddick Top-Five (+100)
