Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (Series Tied 1-1)
Aaron Nola vs. Sean Manaea (0-0)
Over 7 Runs Scored & Mets Over 3.5 Total Team Runs
After a high scoring walkoff thriller in game two, game three offers a pitching matchup that makes the over the first pick of the day. Philadelphia has hit for a .309 batting average against Sean Manaea, and against Aaron Nola Mets hitters have hit for a .272 batting average.
The Mets have scored four runs or more in every postseason game this season except game two of the National League Wildcard. For that reason we’ll take both the over seven runs scored in this game as well as the Mets over in runs scored at 3.5.
Mets Player Props: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases, Mark Vientos Over 0.5 Hits, & Starling Marte Over 0.5 Hits
Against Aaron Nola tonight, the three hitters we look to for player prop picks are Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos and Starling Marte. Pete Alonso has been great this postseason for the Mets, and has hit multiple home runs in crucial spots for this offense.
Alonso in 50 at bats against Nola has hit for a .320 batting average. In 16 hits against Nola, Alonso has tallied three doubles and five home runs. With his total base line at plus odds for at least two total bases, there’s great value tailing Alonso tonight.
Another hitter in this Mets lineup worth tailing tonight is third baseman Mark Vientos. Coming off of a two home run game in game two, Vientos is red hot. He leads the Mets in postseason batting average, and with a .333 batting average against Aaron Nola is in a great spot to keep his hot streak going at the plate.
The final Mets player prop pick tonight is Starling Marte to record at least one hit. In 31 at bats against Nola, Marte has hit for a .355 batting average with an .871 OPS. Coming off of two hitless games to start this NLDS, he’ll look to get back on track tonight at home.
Phillies Player Props: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases, Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases, & Trea Turner Over 0.5 Singles
The two biggest producers in this Phillies lineup in the postseason have been Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos. The two hitting back to back in the order has been a nightmare for the Mets pitching staff to have to deal with, and both have great numbers against Sean Manaea.
In 11 at bats against Sean Manaea, Bryce Harper has hit for a .364 batting average with two doubles and a home run. In 16 at bats, Nick Castellanos has hit for a .375 batting average against Manaea with three home runs. For how productive these two have been this series, we’ll take them to go over 1.5 total bases tonight.
The final pick for this game is Trea Turner to record at least one single. Turner in 16 at bats against Manaea has a .313 batting average but only has one extra base hit. He hasn’t recorded an extra base hit since September 28th, making better value with taking a single the pick.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (Series Tied 1-1)
Walker Buehler vs. Michael King (1-0)
Under 7.5 Runs Scored
This series has been back and forth and difficult to predict as far as outcomes go. Both pitchers on the mound tonight however have posted solid numbers against one another, making the first pick for this game the under 7.5 total runs.
Michael King against Los Angeles has held hitters to a .235 batting average, while Walker Buehler has held Padres hitters to a .204 batting average.
Player Props: Fernando Tatis Jr. & Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 Total Bases
When taking the under in this game, there’s not many offensive player props to turn to. With how unpredictable the pitching performances have been at times in this series, it feels safer to go with two superstars tonight to keep producing.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has cleared the over 1.5 total base line to the point where there’s better value to pick his over 2.5 total bases. The way he’s hitting right now combined with his .310 batting average against Buehler, Tatis should be in a great position to contribute at home.
Shohei Ohtani’s over 2.5 total bases is the final prop pick for this slate. With three home runs and a .429 batting average against Michael King, Ohtani has the potential to have a massive night at the plate in order to try and take the series lead on the road.