Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
Nate Pearson (2-2) vs. Aaron Nola (12-8)
Phillies Moneyline & Aaron Nola Over 18.5 Total Outs (+150)
With the Phillies magic number to clinch the National League East division title at just one, a win against the Cubs on Monday would get the job done. It appears as if Nate Pearson will get his first start with the Chicago Cubs after being decent in 16 games. Pearson recorded a 3.13 ERA, and has been well above league average with a 131 ERA+. He’s lowered his BB/9 rate with the Cubs down to 1.2, and it’ll be very interesting to see how he does against a great offense to open a game.
Aaron Nola over the last couple months of the season has looked sharp on the mound. He’s only gone less than 5.0 IP twice in the last two months dating back to August 5th. Nola’s coming off of a strong 7.0 inning outing against a tough Brewers lineup. Against Nola, the Cubs have a .178 batting average and a .513 OPS.
The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five home games against a team with a winning record, and with Nola having a 1.29 ERA the last seven days, it makes the 18.5 out line at plus odds a great value prop. If Nola can put together a solid start, the Phillies will be in prime position to clinch the division.
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Tanner Houck (8-10) vs. Chris Bassitt (10-13)
2-Leg SGP (+162) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Masataka Yoshida Over 0.5 Hits
The Red Sox are coming into the Rogers Centre for a three game set that is an almost must-sweep for them. There are multiple trends that show the Blue Jays are cold when Chris Bassitt is on the mound. They are 0-5 as a favorite between the odds of -110 and -150.
Both offenses don’t particularly produce well at this point but one hitter against Tanner Houck does well. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits .333 against Houck with five hits in 15 at bats. Guerrero has been hitting exceptionally well recently with 10 hits in the last five games. Masataka Yoshida has hit .375 against Chris Bassitt in 16 at bats. He hasn’t gotten a hit in two games however, and in a crucial spot for Boston against a starter he performs well against, he should be able to help cash this SGP with a hit of his own.Â
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
Bryce Miller (11-8) vs. Hunter Brown (11-8)
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Total Bases & Bryce Miller Under 2.5 Earned Runs
With the Astros trying to clinch the division, taking a game one win over the Mariners would be big. The Mariners however have their backs against the wall and need to scrape out any wins they can to stay in the hunt for the postseason. These three games against Houston are pivotal to the outcome of their season as a final series against Oakland is very winnable.
To get closer to a postseason berth, it’ll undoubtedly need to be a team effort. However, that’s not always something you can rely upon with the Mariners offense. Other than Julio Rodriguez there is simply not much production, and his total base prop at plus odds is another great value pick.
He’s hit .433 this past week, with eight hits in his last three games. Rodriguez has really seemed to step it up, and it’s a matter of can the pitching hold up as well to give the Mariners a shot. Bryce Miller in his last three outings has been very good, going 6.0 innings in each start and only allowing two earned runs across that 18 inning stretch. With the Astros batting .220 against Miller, it makes the under 2.5 earned run total a solid pick.
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Hayden Birdsong (4-5) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (3-3)
Matt Chapman Over 1.5 Total Bases & Hayden Birdsong Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
Recently, Giants rookie pitcher Hayden Birdsong has been better, going over five innings pitched in his last two starts. His very first time out against the Diamondbacks wasn’t too long ago, where he gave up three hits and two earned runs, while walking five. Since that outing Birdsong’s control has leveled out over the last couple of weeks. He hasn’t given up more than 4.5 hits since August 11th, making that the pick for his start today.
Matt Chapman has great numbers against Eduardo Rodriguez and recently when getting hits, has been hitting for more power. Against Rodriguez he hit .429 with four doubles in 14 at bats. Since coming back from the paternity list he has a two home run game and while he went hitless last game, he walked and didn’t strike out, telling us he’s still seeing the ball well still.
Against a pitcher known to give up hits in Eduardo Rodriguez, Chapman has a great shot to cash a plus odds prop here with his over 1.5 total bases.