The Atlanta Falcons have an opportunity to pull even with Tampa Bay atop the NFC South when they play host to the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football.
This is already the fourth home game of the season for the Falcons (2-2), who claimed their first win at Mercedes-Benz Stadium against New Orleans last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Bucs (3-1) scored an impressive win in their lone road game to date, beating Detroit, 20-16, in Week 2.
It’s an important early-season battle between rivals who will meet again in Tampa in just three weeks.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites at BetMGM, where the line had been 1.5 on Thursday morning. It shifted despite 63 percent of the spread-line money backing the Bucs. And Tampa Bay’s +100 moneyline has been backed by 68 percent of the money, including a $15,000 wager placed at Bucs +102.
The line is 2.0 at DraftKings, with the public backing the Bucs with 52 percent of the money. The book also was seeing heavier action on Tampa Bay’s moneyline, which has drawn 67 percent of the money at +100.
Both books had the Over/Under at 43.5 points on Thursday morning. By mid-day, it had shifted slightly to 44.0, with the Over backed by 63 percent of the money wagered.
The Falcons enter with an odd trend, as each of their past seven Thursday night games have gone under the total points line. They also have failed to cover the spread in seven consecutive games in which they entered as favorites against NFC South rivals.
PROP PICKS
–Bijan Robinson 25+ Receiving Yards (-175 at DraftKings): The second-year back leads the Falcons with 224 rushing yards and has added 135 more on 15 catches. Robinson has the fourth-most targets on the team with 16, and has produced at least 25 receiving yards in three of Atlanta’s first four games. This has been the most popular player prop at the sportsbook.
–Mike Evans Anytime TD (+112 at BetRivers): Evans leads all player props at the book with 3.5 percent of the total bets backing him to reach the end zone Thursday night. He’s also second with 1.9 percent of the total money. Evans scored twice in the season opener but went scoreless in two games before catching a touchdown against Philadelphia last week.
KEY STAT
Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown at least one interception in four consecutive home games, including each of his first three with Atlanta.
SERIES HISTORY
The franchises meet for the 62nd time, with the Bucs holding a slim 31-30 advantage thanks to winning six of the past eight meetings.
THE NEWS
The Bucs rebounded from a poor showing in Week 3, a 26-7 home loss to the Denver Broncos, with a convincing 33-16 win over Philadelphia. Baker Mayfield threw for 347 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Evans turned in his best showing of the season, hauling in eight catches for 94 yards and a score.
Ahead of a short week, Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles is preparing for a new-look Atlanta team.
“They’re different offensively and defensively,” Bowles said of the Falcons. “They’re playing faster and they’re playing with a lot more confidence. They’ve added quite a few new guys and they’ve got a lot of talent over there. They can beat you a bunch of different ways, so we’ve got to be on our P’s and Q’s.”
One of the aforementioned “new guys” is Cousins, who threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns in a loss to Bowles and Tampa Bay last year as a member of the Minnesota Vikings.
“(Kirk) is a good football player,” Bowles said. “We played him last year in Minnesota, but he’s in a different offense this time. He’s got a lot more weapons now than he had with just Justin Jefferson and a couple of guys there. He knows how to play the game; he runs the offense well. He knows where to go with the ball and how to get rid of the ball, so he presents a great challenge.”
It’s also a new-look sideline in Atlanta, as first-year coach Raheem Morris has taken over. However, Bowles is no stranger to what a Morris-led team will look like.
“(Raheem) grew up in the next town over from me in New Jersey, so I know him very well,” Bowles said. “He’s a heck of a coach and an outstanding guy. He’s going to bring a lot of fire to those guys, and they’ll be ready to play. … It’ll be a tough battle.”
Aside from reuniting with his New Jersey counterpart, Morris will have many ties to his opponent on Thursday.
Morris served as a defensive assistant in Tampa Bay from 2002-05 and then again in 2007-08, before compiling a 17-31 record as the Buccaneers’ coach from 2009-11.
Before his hiring in Atlanta, Morris was the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams, where Mayfield rejuvenated his career in 2022.
“I’ve got so much respect for Baker from when we had him in L.A., and he got a chance to revitalize what he had lost a little bit,” Morris said. “I think Baker is going to do whatever it takes to try to win that football game. Right now, he’s found a nice formula of getting the ball out of his hands, keeping the completions up. He’s got some really good wideouts that he can get the ball to who can catch and run. If you can find a way to take away some of those things, and kind of force the issues or bad habits, I think that’s the way you have to defend Baker.”
Atlanta is coming off a 26-24 win over the Saints, in which Younghoe Koo blasted a 58-yard game-winning field goal with two seconds left. The Falcons are in the middle of a stretch of facing a division opponent in three straight games. They travel to Carolina next week.
INJURY REPORT
The Bucs on Wednesday ruled out All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) as well as right tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion), defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (calf) and wide receivers Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and Trey Palmer (concussion). Evans (knee/calf) was a limited participant on Wednesday, as were offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs (knee) and defensive lineman William Gholston (knee).
Nose tackle Vita Vea (knee), who was limited on Monday and Tuesday, was a full participant on Wednesday. Bowles said linebacker SirVocea Dennis (shoulder) will be placed on injured reserve.
For Atlanta, linebacker Troy Andersen was a no-show at practice on Monday and Tuesday with a knee injury. He led Atlanta with 10 tackles and had a pick-six Sunday vs. New Orleans. Running back Bijan Robinson (hamstring), offensive tackle Kaleb McGary (knee) and receiver Ray-Ray McCloud (ankle) were limited on Monday and Tuesday.
PREDICTION
The Falcons have alternated wins and losses this season, notching an important victory over New Orleans last Sunday. Each of their first four games have gone down to the wire, with the average scoring margin being only four points. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has steamrolled the likes of Washington and Philadelphia while adding the impressive win at Detroit. At this juncture of the season, the Bucs are the more complete — and explosive — team. –Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20
–Field Level Media