Brothers and head coaches are the chief plotline Monday night with the aptly labeled HarBowl in Los Angeles.
For the first time since Super Bowl XLVII, the Harbaugh brothers meet again almost 12 years later as John leads his Baltimore Ravens (7-4) into California to test the Chargers (7-3).
Already dueling for wildcard position in the AFC, this matchup finds two teams in good standing for the playoffs win or lose. But a potential tiebreaker in seeding the top seven from the conference comes out of this head-to-head fight for the No. 5 seed and first wildcard position.
No team currently on the bubble has better than a 20% chance to reach the postseason, so a loss isn’t a death knell to either side.
–Pressure is modest on Monday night
The Ravens are currently the No. 6 seed in the playoff picture, one spot behind the Chargers.
The Chargers have played one fewer game due to a bye in Week 5. Remarkably, none of the nine teams currently outside the AFC playoff picture have up to six wins on the season.
Even with a loss on Monday night, the Chargers and Ravens will still have no worse than an 85% chance of making the playoffs.
Those circumstances should allow both teams to play at their best.
We already know the Ravens have one of the most potent offenses in the league. They rank first in the FTN Fantasy Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. And it’s a good thing. Because their defense can be particularly vulnerable, ranking 25th in allowing 362 yards per game.
–Prop Stop: RBs raised by Ravens
Five times the Ravens have allowed 320-plus passing yards in 11 games. Third downs are a problem, and a defense asked to be on the field more than 65 snaps seven times is staring down the barrel at a grind-em-down offensive philosophy that spells doom for the secondary in the second half. A rotation of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, former Ravens backs now leading the Chargers’ productive running game (121.6 yards per game) is ample enough to force the Ravens to play to defend the run.
But Baltimore’s big-play woes in the secondary multiply when they have to commit a safety to slow down an opponent’s running game.
Six of QB Justin Herbert’s 13 TD passes this season were on pass plays of more than 25 yards. He is thriving in play-action with more than 700 yards and three touchdowns off of run fakes since Week 6, which is No. 1 in the NFL.
Big plays are there vertically and in the short screen game to push Herbert across the 300-yard passing mark for the second time this season.
Prop pick: Herbert over 300 passing yards (+220, Fan Duel)
–Chargers can hurt Ravens by air
According to Pro Football Focus, the Ravens’ secondary has the lowest grade (63.0) of all three levels of its defense.
Moreover, their explosive passing plays allowed of 20 or more yards are the league’s second-highest (50).
As a result, there’s no question that the Chargers can get after this Ravens defense through the air. Quarterback Justin Herbert is known to push the ball down the field.
The Oregon product ranks ninth in intended air yards, averaging 8.6 per attempt.
This metric is particularly crucial because it shows the average distance of his passes from behind the line of scrimmage even before the throw reaches the intended receiver.
There aren’t a ton of check-downs in this Chargers offense, and Herbert has been extremely precise with his accuracy, having thrown just one interception the entire season.
While they generally like to play a more controlled game, the Chargers are more than capable of holding their own in a shootout like last week in their 34-27 victory over the Bengals.
Herbert completed only 17 of his 36 pass attempts but still threw for 297 yards. That stat line shows the aggressiveness of the Chargers’ downfield strategy, which could be pretty effective against the Ravens’ pass defense.
The Chargers offense intrigues me the most because of their chances of putting up some points — everyone does against the Ravens this season. Their team total of 23.5 points is available at DraftKings and well within my projection.
Pick: Chargers team total over 23.5 (-125)
–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media