Fans and bettors have probably already seen the most exciting game of the Week 10 slate in Thursday night’s Bengals-Ravens game, but that does not mean we take the week off. It just means we find something else to bet on, like the hundred or so player props offered for each game.
We have a lot to get through, so let’s not waste any time. Here are our top 10 player props for Week 10’s Sunday NFL games.
NFL Week 10: Player Props
These are not in any kind of order; we don’t necessarily like the first one any more or less than the last one. But we’d recommend each one. Oh — and be sure to line shop before placing your bet to make sure you are getting the best odds available.
Sam LaPorta O/U 3.5 Receptions at -115/-115
The Detroit Lions tight end was a breakout star in his rookie season last year, with 86 receptions on 120 targets for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. But this season, he just hasn’t been a big part of the gameplan. Other than their season opener against the Rams that went into overtime, he’s been targeted more than three times just twice.
Both of those games were blowout wins. This game should be a relatively close one (especially if C.J. Stroud gets Nico Collins back). The Texans’ defense has limited tight ends to just 24 catches.
Take the UNDER (odds via DraftKings).
Saquon Barkley O/U 103.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards -120/-110 (DraftKings)
Saquon Barkley to record 10+ Rushing Yards in Each Quarter +145 (FanDuel)
Saquon Barkley Longest Rush O/U 17.5 Yards -110/-120 (DraftKings)
The struggle has been all too real for the Cowboys and their defense, which the Eagles and former Giants running back Saquon Barkley will exploit with ease. Dallas has struggled against opposing running backs in several games this season; Barkley is next in line.
However, as bad as the Dallas defense has been, only two running backs have rushed for 100+ yards against them. Bijan Robinson ran for 86 for the Falcons last week but also had 59 receiving yards.
The Eagles appear intent on getting Barkley his touches; he’s averaging 19.6 carries a game. Teams are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the Dallas D. Barkley has been averaging 5.9, but even if the Cowboys hold him to 4.6, Barkley will break a screen play or two for a long gain to get OVER 103.5 rushing and receiving yards.
The only reason he may not get 10+ rushing yards a carry would be if the game is so well in hand that he sits out the fourth quarter. As for his longest rush, Dallas has given up nine plays of 20+ yards. Between Barkley’s shiftiness and the Cowboys’ inability to tackle, he’ll make it at least 10 (if not 11 or 12).
Take OVER 17.5 yards.
D’Andre Swift O/U 71.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)
D’Andre Swift O/U 17.5 Rushing Attempts at -105/-125 (DraftKings)
Swift didn’t run for 71.5 total yards in the first three games but has since gone over 71.5 in four of five games. Three of those games were wins, and the fourth, they lost because of a Hail Mary. The Patriots have allowed a running back to gain 80 or more yards in their last five games; two did so in one game.
Since the Bears will likely try to take advantage of the Patriots’ run defense and feed Swift the ball, he’ll have no problem going OVER 71.5 yards rushing.
Now, he’s only carried the ball 18+ times in two games. But look for the Bears to take advantage of New England’s poor run defense to help take pressure off Caleb Williams. Opposing teams averaged 35.3 rushing attempts vs. the Patriots in their last three games. Swift will get at least 20 in this game.
Take the OVER for his rushing attempts.
Kyle Pitts O/U 41.5 Receiving Yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)
Kyle Pitts O/U 3.5 Receptions at -114/-114 (FanDuel)
Pitts had one catch for 11 yards last week vs. Dallas and had no catches against the Saints (three targets) back in Week 4. In the four games in between, he had seven, three, seven, and four catches for 88, 70, 65, and 91 yards. Kirk Cousins will get him involved again facing a Saints defense that is struggling right now.
Take the OVER.
As for his receptions total, before the Dallas game last week, he had more than 3.5 in three of four games. Had he caught a few balls against the Saints, he would have probably been targeted more than three times in that one. If Cousins is going to get him involved, he’ll throw 5-10 passes to Pitts. The tight end should catch at least four.
Take the OVER.
Baker Mayfield O/U 34.5 Pass Attempts -115/-115
Baker Mayfield O/U 0.5 Interceptions
Mayfield has averaged 40.5 attempts per game over his last four, partially because the Buccaneers have had to play catch-up and because they do not run the ball well. Against a 49ers team getting Christian McCaffrey back this week, there is a good chance Tampa Bay will be playing catch-up early and often in this game.
Take the OVER.
In regard to his interception total, when you throw the ball as much as Tampa Bay does, you are bound to throw the occasional pick. Mayfield did not throw one last week but had seven in the previous three games. The 49ers’ defense had two in each of their last three games and at least one in their last five games.
If Mayfield throws the ball 40+ times again, he’s throwing at least one pick against this 49ers defense.
Take the OVER.
–Field Level Media