The 4-4 Los Angeles Rams are hosting the 2-6 Miami Dolphins tonight at 8:15pm EST in SoFi stadium. The games betting line opened with the Rams being favored -2.5 and it has stayed that way since. Below I am going to break down why despite the Dolphins being 2-6 and playing on the road they are only 2.5 point underdogs, and how I think the game will go. Let’s get into it.
The Rams have been up and down this year, it starts with their former superbowl winning quarterback Matthew Stafford. Stafford has thrown for 1,969 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions this year, definitely not up to his standard that he has met in the past. Part of his struggles can definitely be accredited to losing Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua for time this year, Tutu Atwell has been the Rams leading receiver in yards. Naturally, as he ages and loses his top weapons, Stafford was going to struggle.
Despite this, Stafford is still a solid quarterback in the national football league, he is a great match with head coach and play caller Sean McVay. They have been together for what is their 4th year together. Stafford under McVay (excluding this year) has thrown for 75 touchdowns in 3 years.
Stafford will face a Miami Dolphins defense that has been up and down this year; they have shown the good, the bad, and the ugly of their unit. The last 2 weeks against very capable quarterbacks, the Dolphins defense allowed 59 points, including 2 walk off field goals. When the defense needed to make a big stop, they were unable to. They will have their hands full with the Rams dynamite offense.
The other piece of the Rams offense that needs to be mentioned is star running back Kyren Willims. Williams, a member of the Rams 2021 draft class, has been outstanding for them specifically the last two years. Last year Williams made a pro bowl for the Rams, and it is looking like the same trajectory for him this year with 602 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns.
This combination of weapons in the run and pass game, paired with a great offensive line and veteran quarterback is going to be once again a tough challenge for Miami to stop. If they want to win they will need to win in the trenches. Having Zach Sieler back from injury is a good start, but rookie Chop Robinson needs to step up. Calais Campbell and Emmanuel Ogbah have played great for Miami the last few weeks, their production has not gone unnoticed.
On the defensive side of the ball for the Rams, they have a new defensive coordinator in Chris Shula. He took over for former defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who is now the head coach for the Atlanta Falcons. Shula was on the staff beforehand so this was a promotion from within the organization for the Rams, his scheme and defensive structure is similar to Rams defenses everyone is used to. They have their hands full with one of the national football leagues best offenses tonight. They have playmakers on defense that have been good at taking the ball away. Rookie Jaylen McCollough has 4 interceptions on the year, he plays in a deep shell at the safety position.
The Rams defensive line has been a deep but not dominant unit. No one has more than 4 sacks, but 5 players have more than 3 sacks. They are going up against a Dolphins offensive line that has looked excellent the last two weeks. One thing the Rams have going for them tonight is Dolphins right tackle Austin Jackson is out with an injury. It is expected either rookie Patrick Paul or veteran Kendall Lamm will start on the right side of the offensive line in his absence. Paul is a raw but extremely talented player, he needs more reps to hit his full potential, Lamm on the other hand has been serviceable for Miami when called on.
All in all, I expect two talented offenses to put points up on the board. I personally think the game will go over 50.5 points, especially looking at how the Dolphins defense has crumbled in the second half the last two weeks while their offense has been sharp and explosive. I also think the Dolphins bounce back with a win this week, they are hungry to get back a win and I personally believe they are the better team tonight.
My prediction for tonight is going to be 28-25 Miami, with game balls going to Tua Tagoavailoa and Tyreek Hill.