The week 8 slate of college football is among us. CUSA football played yesterday but I was not betting on those games, that’s for sure. Last week was an interesting one, I went 4-3 but the losses were so close. Pitt didn’t cover by ONE POINT, and UNLV didn’t cover by 3, despite them having a 34 point lead at one point. INEXCUSABLE stuff from those two teams. Regardless, my pick of the week hit, as well as I had a winning week. 4-3 last week brings my record up to 20-14 (59% hit rate). This is a fun slate with some interesting lines. Let’s get into it.
Navy -17 vs Charlotte:
This is my bet of the week! I am loving the service academies this week. Navy has been absolutely crushing spreads this year. Charlotte looks improved from last year, but I still do not think they are a very good football team. Navy should take care of business at home and give the 49ers trouble.
Army -15 vs ECU:
I WILL TAKE ARMY SPREAD UNTIL THEY DO NOT COVER. Every single week Army football has covered the spread that Vegas puts out. Why stop now? This is a poor ECU football team, who has bad losses to Charlotte, Liberty, and App State. Army is at home once again, and they haven’t even played a game within 15 points the whole year. It is also worth mentioning ECU quarterback Jake Garcia already has 12 interceptions on the year, that is not a recipe for success.
Tulane -21.5 vs Rice:
I have taken the top three teams in the AAC this year, and for good reason. Tulane is a damn good football team, Rice is a really bad football team. The last time Tulane played football they scored 71 points, I don’t see them doing that against Rice but I do see them covering. They play tough defense and create turnovers as well, which should help them cover the spread in this one.
Wisconsin vs Northwestern over 41:
I like this pick a lot on Saturday. It is disingenuous to say that Wisconsin is starting a “backup quarterback”, Brayden Locke is better than Tyler Van Dyke. Yup I said it, Locke is balling right now for the Badgers. I could see Wisconsin smack this over by themselves, but to make it even better between the two teams they are averaging 51.7 points per year. If Wisconsin can just put up 25 and Northwestern can put up 17, this bet hits (that would be a down performance for both offenses).
Florida Atlantic moneyline +140 vs UTSA:
This is crazy to put out, I get it. But current season analytics predict FAU wins this game 80% of the time. UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor also said he thinks this is the best team in conference he will play to this date. FAU also is averaging 41 points a game on offense the last two games since Tom Herman took over a large majority of play calling duties, while UTSA is struggling mightily on offense. FAU found a way to lose against UNT, even if they play like they did against UNT I think they will win this game comfortably. This is an underdog pick that I am not so sure should be plus value.
Nebraska +7.5 (Alt Line) vs Indiana:
Indiana is well coached, Curt Cignetti is a certified winner, he has done it everywhere he has gone. Kurtis Rourke has looked the opposite, the former Ohio Bobcat has looked even better since coming over to the Big Ten school. However Nebraska has a coach and QB duo of their own in Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola. They haven’t been as good since their loss to Illinois, but covering 7.5 points in conference play is 100% obtainable.
Miami -2.5 (alt line) vs Louisville:
I moved the line down, to 2.5 from 4.5 so that if Miami wins by a field goal the bet hits. Louisville is 4-2, they have lost to two teams that are worse than Miami. Everyone says Miami is due for a loss, but that’s not how it works. Miami is a very good football team and that isn’t changing anytime soon. I expect them to beat a team they are better than on Saturday.