FAU will be looking to bounce back following their tough road loss to state rival USF. Unfortunately for the Owls, the next game is by no stretch a bounce back game as SMU comes to town as one of the most efficient all-around teams in the country.
The Mustangs currently come in winners of 6 straight and are fresh off a blowout win over Memphis. SMU hasn’t lost a conference game by more than 5 points, and have only lost one game by double digits this year, way back in November against Texas A&M. Their ability to score consistently while also being able to defend at a high level has made this team a tough out during conference play, and no difference can be expected on Thursday night.
Zhuric Phelps and Chuck Harris lead the way offensively for SMU, averaging 14.7 and 13.4 points per game respectively, and will provide fun matchups against FAUs defensive minded back court unit.
Where FAU may have an advantage is size, as the Mustangs leading rebounder is Samuell Williamson a 6 ‘8 forward. Their size hasn’t been an issue on the offensive glass, in fact their athleticism down low has led to the team averaging an offensive rebound 38.4% of the time which is good for 7th in the nation. However, opposing big men have been able to get in good position on the other end, as the team allows an offensive rebound on 31.5% of possessions, which is 280th in the country.
The Owls may be looking to build off Vlad Goldin’s big offensive performance against USF, and although he struggled to pull in rebounds, he was a physical force in the paint and put up 23 points to help FAU almost pull off the comeback. Goldin’s physicality will match up well against Tyreek Smith who is currently averaging 1.8 blocks per game and is SMUs “enforcer” down low.
It will be important for FAU to look to put Goldin and Rosado in positions to succeed down low, and for them to be aggressive on both the offensive and defensive glass as there is a big opportunity to gain an advantage on the boards. SMU sends out 3 forwards in their starting lineup, so it will be crucial for FAU to be able to rotate their big men effectively to allow for the best matchups.
SMU’s overall defense has been quite effective this season charting a top 50 ranking in the country per Ken Pom, in 3- & 2-point percentage allowed Block % and Steal %. If FAU is going to overcome this staunch mustang defense, Coach May says the Owls will look to have to come out with early offense and overcome the struggles that plagued them in the USF game.
“The sense of urgency we had late, needs to be replicated for 40 minutes. To find that edge for 40 minutes is the goal, and we’re still striving for it,”… ”We just have to eliminate the self inflicted wounds, the miscommunication in transition, maybe it’s a missed blockout, we’re making more errors than we need to to be playing at a championship level. Fourtatley, they’re all errors that are easily preventable,” Coach Dusty May said in his weekly press conference.
Little mistakes like turnovers and missed box outs will kill you against an SMU team who steals the ball on 12.6% of possessions and forces a turnover without a steal on 6.5% of possession, while also being a very efficient offensive rebounding team.
FAU will be looking to cut out the sloppy play that killed them in the first half against USF, and looking to build off the strong offensive performances that helped them come back in that game. Johnell Davis put up 20, Goldin had 23, and Alijah Martin had 17 and has been putting together a string of solid performances.
He put up 16 against Temple, and 11 against Wichita State, with most of those points coming in overtime, a period in which the Owls dominated thanks to Martin. If Alijah is able to continue to build on this strong stretch against SMU, it will help the Owls attempt to outscore a very high-powered mustangs offense, who outside of their 2 main scorers’ chart 4 players who shoot the 3 ball above 35%.
The biggest key to success in this game for the Owls is having the ability to play a full 40 minutes of basketball at a high level, and that starts with a hot start. FAU needs to be looking to find a hot hand early, whether that is Vlad, Alijah, or Johnell, but whoever needs to jumpsuit the FAU offense so it can spread throughout the team during the game.
SMU will just continue to look to continue what they are doing, and that is playing consistent basketball on both the offensive and defensive end. FAU will have to disrupt their game plan and force the Mustangs to play a different style of basketball than they are used too.
Once again it is a linear broadcasted matchup, being broadcast on espn at 7 pm. Ken Pom is currently predicting a 4-point FAU victory, 77-73, while the oddsmakers are putting FAU at 8.5-point favorites.
