By Adam Kerr
At this point, it is a common opinion that one of NBA Commissioner Adam Silver’s best additions to the sport has been the Play-In Tournament. It was a controversial move at first, but now it is one of the most exhilarating parts of the NBA year. At no other time can fans watch a single-game series that decides who can make a run at the Larry O’Brien trophy, and who will be marking their calendars for the draft lottery. After the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat went from the Play-In to the conference finals in 2023, every Play-In team thinks they can be the next team to go from a bottom seed to a championship run. With the star power that will end up in this year’s games, a few of those teams may not be wrong. That said, here are the teams with the best chances at replicating L.A. and Miami’s postseason runs.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns have a perfect path to the playoffs. They currently sit at the 7th seed in the West and would be playing an injured Sacramento Kings team in the win-and-in game. If they make it past Sacramento, they then face one of Oklahoma City, Denver, or Minnesota. It would be tough to get past Jokic and the Nuggets, but they match up great against OKC and Minnesota. The Thunder don’t have the experience that Booker, Durant, and Frank Vogel have. If they go against the Timberwolves, they won’t have to worry about Karl-Anthony Towns for at least a good portion of the series. Of course, Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert still have this team at a top seed in the West, but their top defense will have a rough time defending the big three of Booker, Durant, and Beal. Should they take one of these teams out, it would only get easier for them as the postseason progresses.
Philadelphia 76ers
It is no secret that if injuries didn’t exist, the 76ers wouldn’t be in the Play-In. Joel Embiid was on pace to win MVP before tearing his meniscus, Tyrese Maxey is the most improved player, and they have an elite supporting cast around the duo. Embiid is expected to return in the coming days and depending on how well they play when he comes back, they may not even be in the Play-In by the time the season is over. However, if they are a seven or eight seed, they will surely make it to the playoffs and will go against either the Bucks or the Cavaliers. Milwaukee has problems that could lead to their demise in the postseason, and Cleveland’s stars have rotated in and out of the lineup, giving them some continuity issues. The Sixers will need to give each of these series their all, but they will likely be the favorites to come out on top no matter which of the two they face off against. If Embiid comes back at his best form, they will have a good shot at making it the farthest of anyone on this list.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers might be the most interesting team on this list. Most of the teams in the Play-In are either contenders who dealt with injury history or lottery teams that aren’t quite bad enough to net themselves a top pick in the draft. However, the Lakers have had such a back-and-forth season that it is tough to gauge where they fall in terms of contention. On one hand, they have wins against almost all of the best teams in the league, but they also have had tough times beating lottery teams. It can probably be assumed that they will make it into the playoffs and face off against either the first or second seed in the conference. However, unlike the other teams in this list, they need things to fall into place almost perfectly if they want to make it far. If they can face off against the OKC Thunder, they will likely be favored to win the series. Going undefeated against them in the regular season, the Lakers’ size and experience can be even more overwhelming for Oklahoma City in the playoffs than it already has been so far. However, this does not feel like the same Lakers team as last year, and even if they make it past the Thunder, it is hard to imagine them sustaining a high level of play through June.
Miami Heat
At face value, there isn’t much of a reason to believe the Heat will make it through the first round, never mind make a deep run. However, history shows to not look at seeding when it comes to the Heat. Since 2020, Miami has made the Eastern Conference Finals three times under the same core of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro. In those seasons, they were the five seed, the one seed, and the eight seed. Since the turn of the decade, Miami has proved that it does not matter whether they are at home or not, they will put up a fight like no other. On top of this, the addition of Terry Rozier gives them an added offensive kick that they have not had in any of those years. Should they make the playoffs, they will likely either play the Celtics or the Bucks, both of which they have playoff history with. Future Hall of Fame Head Coach Eric Spoelstra may use that as an advantage against a Celtics team filled with newcomers and the Bucks with a Coach new to the rivalry. Should they get past the first round, Miami shouldn’t be counted out at any point. Lastly, if Jimmy Butler decides to turn into a playoff Jimmy again, they could easily make a deep run.
