After his continuous success since starting out so poorly, Austin Wells has managed to drag himself into the conversation for American League Rookie of the Year. Wells, once a +3000 underdog to take the award preseason, may just bring a big payday to anyone who had the idea to put something on it.
He’s still in a battle with Orioles rookie Colton Cowser, who is in great position as well to take it. While many have dived into the numbers to compare, let’s take a deeper dive into these two and decide, who should win the award.
The Basics
Wells and Cowser have put up similar production in terms of the box score numbers. Cowser as of right now has a slashline of .241/.324/.432 while Wells has a current slashline of .252/.342/.437. Wells has a slightly higher OPS as well.
The big difference between the two here is that Cowser has been used more by the Orioles this season. The fact he’s put up near identical production to Wells in more games, may be enough to prove he deserves the award.
He’s played 37 more games, while having almost 150 more plate appearances. Cowser has more hits currently, and seven more home runs at 20 compared to Wells’ 13. However, in 37 less games, Wells has commanded a 2.8 WAR, 0.4 points better than Cowser at 2.4.
Image via: Stathead
Hard Hit Numbers
Now let’s take a deeper dive into some of the games advanced statistics and analyze who is really more of a valuable bat in their teams lineup. Starting off with exit velocity and how hard the two hit the baseball. Cowser has a higher max exit velocity and average exit velocity than Wells, maxing out currently at 113.6 MPH while averaging 90.4 MPH.
Wells isn’t far off, with an average exit velocity of 89.2 MPH, and a maximum exit velocity of 111.2 MPH. Cowser has the slight edge in hard hit rate as he currently posts a 45.4% rate, and Wells is currently at a 40.2% rate. Cowser has the slight edge in barrel rate as well with his 13.7% beating Wells’ 9.6%.
While exit velocity stats and other hard hit rate numbers don’t obviously tell the whole story the two have a near identical frame at 6’2” and 220 pounds, making it interesting to see who comes out with the better hard hit numbers. If hitting the baseball hard is more valuable to you, you’d most likely now be leaning towards Colton Cowser for this award.
Batted Ball Numbers
Now that we’ve taken a look at the hard hit numbers and more of how their strength translates to their offensive production, let’s take a look at the batted ball numbers. For these two, hitting the ball hard and keeping the ball in the air is where they are at their best. For Wells in particular it’s hitting line drives.
Wells has a better line drive rate than Cowser, currently at a 21.8% rate to Cowser’s 17.7% (Cowser has one more actual line drive hit in 37 more games). Wells has the higher fly-ball rate as well, yet Cowser has the slightly higher home run to fly-ball ratio. Their splits as far as pulling the ball or going to the opposite field are also very similar.
One major difference between these two’s batted ball numbers is the infield fly-ball percentage. Wells has an infield fly-ball percentage of 8.1%, compared to Cowser’s 0.9%. When considering on an infield fly-ball there’s no chance of advancing a runner or obtaining a hit at all, one could argue that’s a very significant flaw when comparing the two.
Win Probability Stats
Now we’ve looked at the hard hit numbers and the batted ball numbers, it seems like Cowser in more games may just have that slight edge over Austin Wells for this award. Maybe the most important advanced metrics however are win probability stats. These stats arguably tell us the most significant part about these players: whether or not they show up when it matters most.
In baseball nowadays there is a stat that measures how good or bad a player is in high leverage situations, and it’s quite literally called clutch. When it comes to clutch, a league average number is just a flat rate of 0.0 according to FanGraphs.
When we look at Wells and Cowser’s clutch numbers, Wells is currently sitting at a 0.40 clutch while Cowser is sitting at a -2.37 clutch. According to FanGraphs, 0.40 clutch is considered nearly above average, while -2.37 is awful.
While Cowser in more games has put up very similar production to Austin Wells, better hard hit numbers and arguably better batted ball numbers, Wells is far better in high leverage situations. If you’re someone who values how your hitters come up in a high leverage situation over how they consistently make hard contact, you’d now most likely be taking Wells for your American League Rookie of the Year.
Defense
Cowser is one of the more underrated defenders in the American League East, and plays a solid left field. He’s recorded 10 outs above average this season ranking in the 96th percentile for both that and arm strength. Wells behind the plate offers incredible framing, ranking in the 96th percentile.
Both are incredibly valuable to their teams when it comes to their defense. When comparing the two’s overall defense, it’s difficult because they play two completely different positions. Cowser’s strengths in the outfield are undeniable, but Wells also provides the Yankees with very valuable defense behind the plate.
So who deserves the award when the season’s all said and done?
Given the current comparisons of their stats we can expect they stay neck-and-neck in terms of their offensive production. The deciding factor for many could be the clutch factor that Austin Wells has, and Colton Cowser just hasn’t shown. Wells has seen time in the fourth hole of the Yankee lineup, and is undoubtedly one of their most valuable bats currently. If he can continue to put up this production in less games than Cowser, Wells may just take it.