5 picks for the MLB slate – 7/2/24

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Kyle Gibson (5-3) vs. Mitch Keller (9-4)

Under 8.0 runs scored

The under in this division rivalry is hot right now, with the last three games going under the run total line. The 8.0 line is a half a run less than the last time Mitch Keller and he has a 2.36 ERA at home. Keller gave up four runs in his last start against St. Louis, and Kyle Gibson, who has a 2.68 ERA on the road will need a quality start as well to keep this one from going under. 

New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Sean Manaea (5-3) vs. DJ Herz (1-2)

Mets -1.5

The Mets are coming off of a 9-7 win against Washington last night and look to take game two today. Last start for DJ Herz against the Mets resulted in a 6-3 win for the Mets when the spread was at plus odds. The spread today is also at plus odds, and can be great value today against another left handed starter.

Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees

Graham Ashcraft (4-4) vs Luis Gil (9-3)

Under 8.5 runs scored

The Yankees look to get Luis Gil back to his earlier season form and after a couple of tough starts, can get back on track against the Reds. Graham Ashcraft looks to limit the runs on the road as he’s done all year. Ashcraft hasn’t given up more than four runs on the road all year. The under is 6-0 in Ashcraft’s last six road starts against a team with a winning record. 

San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves

Hayden Birdsong (0-0) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (6-2)

Braves -1.5

Reynaldo Lopez has been incredible all season with a 1.70 ERA and at plus odds, the spread here is a pick with great value. In Hayden Birdsong’s second start, it’ll be a tough challenge on the road against an Atlanta offense capable of scoring a lot of runs. The value combined with the inexperience from Birdsong makes the spread here a good play. 

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies

Dallas Keuchel (0-0) vs. Ryan Feltner (1-7)

Over 11.5 runs scored

These two put up runs late in the game yesterday and at Coors field combined with these two starters on the mound calls for a lot of runs to be scored. The over is hot when Feltner is on the mound for Colorado, and with Keuchel on the mound for Milwaukee with a current ERA of 11.25, the over here seems like another safe play for this series.