The annual Home Run Derby will be played tonight at 8:00 PM ET, at the home of the Texas Rangers, Globe Life Field. With some new names and new rules, this Home Run Derby to some seems like one of the less intriguing derby’s in recent memory. However, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Here’s some background information to help you place your bets on who will take home the title of Home Run Derby champion.
All betting odds provided by Action Sports Network.
Before getting started, here are the new rules for the derby. For the first two rounds, each contestant gets three minutes or 40 pitches whatever comes first. They’ll be given a single 45 second timeout as well, which cannot be used during the bonus. The final round will be either 27 pitches or two minutes.
Pete Alonso – New York Mets +310 (favorite)
An all too familiar face to the Home Run Derby, Pete Alonso once again will be competing looking for his third title. Alonso is no stranger to the derby, winning back in 2019 and 2021. He has some tough competition in this one, but is always the betting favorite heading into the event. He famously has the record for most home runs in a single round, tallying 35 home runs in the opening round of his 2021 derby victory. This season, Alonso has 19 home runs coming into the event and more importantly, ranks in the 91st percentile for bat speed, and the 81st percentile for barrel rate. One of the league’s most prolific power hitters should match up very well against the rest of the field.
Gunnar Henderson – Baltimore Orioles +400
The Orioles young phenom shortstop will compete in his first ever Home Run Derby following his 2023 AL Rookie of the Year campaign. Henderson ranks third in the league with 28 home runs heading into the all star break. He ranks in the 96th percentile for bat speed, the 91st percentile for barrel rate, and the 99th percentile for hard hit rate. With that type of high quality production, fans can expect nothing short of a show from Henderson, as he looks to take home the Home Run Derby crown.
Marcell Ozuna – Atlanta Braves +425
Ozuna comes into the Derby with 26 home runs ranking fourth in the league. He earned the all star nod being one of if not the best hitters on the Braves roster. Ozuna ranks in the 95th percentile of average exit velocity, and the 98th percentile in barrel and hard hit rate. There are not many other batters in the league right now that can do what Ozuna can to the baseball, and it should make for a very exciting derby performance.
Bobby Witt Jr. – Kansas City Royals +425
The Royals new franchise shortstop throughout his short career, has been known to be an incredible all around five tool player, and looks to showcase more of his power in tonight’s derby. While Witt has 16 home runs so far this season, he hits the ball incredibly hard. He ranks in the 93rd percentile for average exit velocity, the 93rd percentile for barrel rate, and the 91st percentile for hard hit rate. Tonight could very well open the baseball world’s eyes to Witt’s freak athleticism and sneaky power that allows him to be a 30/30 guy at the highest level.
Adolis Garcia – Texas Rangers +600
The hometown hero comes in with incredible value going into this event. Garcia’s percentile rankings compared to the previous names mentioned are slightly lower, but at his home field Garcia’s got as good of a chance as anyone else. He doesn’t seem to be having a significant down year power wise as he’s tallied 17 home runs in the first half. With the crowd on his side it should be fun to watch Garcia compete, and a great bet to take home the crown.
Teoscar Hernandez – Los Angeles Dodgers +1100
Teoscar had a very solid first half for the Dodgers. The outfielder hit .261 with an .802 OPS and hit 19 home runs. Like Garcia compared to the rest of the field, his percentile rankings are slightly lower, but he does rank in the 92nd percentile for barrel rate. While a more unlikely name to take the title, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him give some of the better power hitters here some trouble.
Jose Ramirez – Cleveland Guardians +1400
Jose Ramirez will come into Globe Life Field looking to do better than his first Home Run Derby. Although his percentile rankings in stats like average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate are significantly lower than the rest of the previous names mentioned, he has tallied 23 home runs in the first half, and is a longshot pick to take home the title.
Alec Bohm – Philadelphia Phillies – +2000
The biggest longshot for this year’s derby is the Philadelphia third baseman. While he’s hit .295 in the first half, he only tallied 11 home runs. His percentile rankings are also significantly lower than the rest of the field, falling into the low-70 percentiles for stats like average exit velocity, hard hit rate, and launch angle sweet-spot rate. Bohm winning would be a serious surprise but if you’re feeling lucky, tail the +2000 odds.
Predicted Winner – Gunnar Henderson
Henderson’s been amazing at the plate and has all the physical traits needed to win the event. While Ozuna and Garcia could be other possibilities, Henderson should be able to match up well with anyone, and undoubtedly has the power to take it.