By Joe Quillen
Tampa Bay Downs Race 11 – Tampa Bay Derby
Happy Saturday and hopefully everyone is doing well out there wherever you are, as today we will catch the signature race of the 2023-2024 Tampa Bay Downs meet as it is Tampa Bay Derby Day. We have 10 three-year-olds entered for today’s race which will award 50 points to the winner, essentially giving the winner a position in the gate for the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.
This race looks like a two-horse race here. The two favorites here are the 7 No More Time (7/5 morning line) and the 5 Domestic Product (8/5 ML). No More Time won the local prep to today’s race last month in the Sam F. Davis and will try to do the same exact thing as last month going gate to wire here. Domestic Product looks like he will stalk here behind the leaders and look to pass the favorite as they turn for home.
No More Time should have some company on the front end. The 2 Everdoit (30/1 ML) will try to keep up here. He lost the jockey last time in the Sam F. Davis. He has been near the front in his previous two route races, but he tired both previous times.
Grand Mo the First (#9, 12/1 ML) has been close to the pace in his synthetic and dirt races, but this is the first race that he will run on the dirt. He will have to prove too much here for my money.
There are two interesting horses here that are catching my eye. The 4 Good Money (15/1 ML) won his debut race on January 26 and is stepping up to the big boys here. That race he won was here at Tampa, so he will be familiar with the surroundings. He’s going to have to run a great race to hit the board, but you figure trainer Chad Brown saw something in that race to try to give him a chance at getting points and potentially a spot in Louisville in May.
The other is the 10 Sturdy (8/1 ML). Now he is still a maiden after three races, but he prepped for this race at Gulfstream Park going a mile and an eighth. So he is shortening up here, but I get mixed signals from him. His sire Mitole was a sprinter, and the only race he ran at a mile was a one-turn mile which he won. Sturdy’s dam is an unraced mare sired by Harlan’s Holiday who was a classic runner who won races like the Pennsylvania Derby. So it’s possible the mom’s side could bring out the route running here.
Also when you see those three races he has run, he’s faced some tough horses like Locked and Drum Roll Pleasein his debut race, and Domestic Product in his second race. Despite the maiden designation, he’s faced some of these horses already.
The whole question here is how much company No More Time will have on the front end. There will be some speed, but I don’t think there’s enough to challenge him here. I think No More Time here wins, and I think Sturdy noses out Domestic Product at the wire. I’ll call this 7-10-5-4 and my play is $20 to win on the 7. Good luck everyone!
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