By Joe Quillen
Wednesday 4/17/24 – Tampa Bay Downs Race 9
Sometimes when I see the Race of the Day on the Daily Racing Form website, which most of the time leads to the Quills Picks Winners race of the day, I question why they pick a certain race, like for example, Parx race 6 during the winter months on Mondays and Tuesdays. Today, we definitely did not get a “ho hum” race today, as we will look at what looks at first glance as a very challenging race. We will look at the ninth and final race of the Tampa Bay Downs card and my good friend Jason Beem will tell us that “the race is on” at approximately 4:24 pm Eastern time.
The race is a maiden special weight race going one mile on the turf course and is restricted to three-year-olds. Since it is still fairly early in the year, there are quite a few horses here that are making either their career debuts or second appearance on the race track.
Favored in this race is a first timer, the 8 horse John the Baptist (2/1 morning line). He has had very consistent workouts for his debut. His last five workouts have all been in the range of 49 2/5 to 49 4/5 seconds. His sire More Than Ready never ran on the turf, but his offspring have won 13% of the time (718 for 5175) compared to a 11% average with turf route races. The dam (or mother) Angel Star was unraced, but her other starter raced two times and had a second and a third. There appears to be turf horses all over the pedigree here if you are looking further into that angle as well.
Trainer Chad Brown wins at 18% on first time starters, 20% with horses running on the first time, and 21% with horses debuting at a mile or longer. All the numbers are screaming that this colt should be ready to run.
Board of Directors (#2, 9/2 ML) might be the “other” Chad Brown first timer here who trained in the Miami area like the favorite. His sire Street Boss wins 13% of the time as well with turf route horses (197 for 1421) and 13% with first timers (87 of 667). His dam Sweet Delight was also an unraced mare, but she hasn’t had any offspring run on the turf yet.
The Demarcheller sired horses may be horses to look at, whether it is today or down the road. The 4 Zimbawee (20/1 ML) will need to beat me or impress me today with a better-than-expected performance to have me place my money on him in the future. The 7 Sebastianthe First (6/1 ML) ran once last year at Saratoga near the end of their meet. He closed well will running very wide throughout after being fractious in the gate.
But why do I mention these two horses? If you are into some analytics and some pedigree angles, one of these horses is for me, I’ll take Sebastianthe First over Zimbawee. But their sire wins 22% of turf route races. The 7 probably wanted more ground in his debut, and a little growing up probably won’t hurt him either.
The 9 Red Roadster (30/1 ML) did not show much in his debut sprinting on the grass here at Tampa at the end of January. He got the debut out of the way. He looks like he could get a small piece here today. His sire Lord Nelson’s offspring wins 16% of the time on turf routes (22 for 135). The extra distance should help him today.
Finally, the 6 Zeke’s Heart (3/1 ML) will get a bit of class relief going across the state to Tampa. He chased the leaders and then faded last time out. Once again, a horse that should be better after the debut.
I am going to try to beat the favorite John the Baptist here. I like what I am seeing here with Sebastianthe First. Let’s call this 7-8-6-9 and my play is $20 to win on the 7. Good luck everyone!
QPW Update Desk
- Saturday April 20 will be the debut on Riptide Media and Bleacher Brothers called “Also Eligible”. You can download the Sports Radio 102.9 The Game app in either the Apple Store or Google Play Store, or you can watch me live on the Bleacher Brothers’ Facebook page, their YouTube, and other platforms. I will confirm the platforms over the next couple of days for my debut.
- One race that I am guaranteeing that I will look at on Saturday is the tenth race at Parx Racing on Monday, which is the Page McKenney Handicap. Why is that? The Bleacher Brothers’ adopted horse Uncle Ernie is entered as I projected he would be after he won an allowance race last month at Parx.
- Other races that I am planning to look at as of Wednesday morning include the Oaklawn Handicap which runs Saturday afternoon, and the return of the Illinois Derby, which will be a Preakness prep race on Sunday.
Follow Joe on Twitter/Instagram/Threads @JoeQuills and check Joe’s sports stream podcast on Twitch every Tuesday and Thursday at 9 pm ET starting on Tuesday 4/9, and his YouTube channel where you can catch the show on demand.