By Joe Quillen
Wednesday 2/14/24 – Tampa Bay Downs Race 7
I am back. Well, I’m kinda back. While everyone from the Tony Bruno Show and Bleacher Brothers has vacated The Strip and Las Vegas, I have stayed around for a few extra days for some R&R as well as getting to see some of my Las Vegas friends from the Free4All Show which was on Twitch. Reminder, I am on Twitch on Tuesdays and Thursdays at 10 pm Eastern/7 pm Pacific, and will return to the Twitch streams on Thursday night, flight permitting.
But until then, I thought I would get back into the swing of things here. Truthfully, I was itching to do Tuesday’s race at Parx, but I hear from out here in Vegas that it snowed in my neck of the woods today. The only snow I see right now is on the tops of the mountains outside the window of my hotel room where I’ve been for a week now.
But let’s get back to the racing here, and you know since it is a Wednesday, we are going to stay away from the cold and snowy Northeast and head to Tampa Bay Downs for today’s seventh race. We have older maidens (four years old and up) going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf course. Nine horses are entered here in this race.
Sometimes you have to dig further than what is given to you in the program. Thankfully with the Daily Racing Form, I dug for more information regarding the 4 Going Concern (5/2 morning line). This gelding’s sire is Kingman who has a very impressive record. Most impressive to me is the fact that this sire’s progeny win at an average distance of 7.9 furlongs, just under a mile, and one of the highest numbers I’ve seen so far since I started doing this series for you.
But it doesn’t stop there. His progeny win 21% of the time (91 for 427) compared to a 13% average, and as of right now, first time starters aged three years old and up win 32% of the time (13 for 40), horses four years old and up win 19% of the time (42 for 217) overall, and turf route runners, meaning one mile or longer win 21% of the time (68 for 311). All these stats are at least 7% higher than the averages quoted by Daily Racing Form.
If this horse is ready to run, which I would be utterly shocked he wouldn’t be, this gelding should be graduating today. Everything that you would see in the program with his workouts and uncovering even more information that I found makes this horse my top selection.
The 6 Big Commerce (4/1 ML) returns to the turf after running in a race last month in an off the turf/synthetic race on the Tapeta at Gulfstream Park. He will get some class relief here going on I-75 to Tampa. He should be stalking the leaders here.
The 9 Au Paradis (7/2 ML) is a first timer here who has the turf background on the dam (mother’s) side of the breeding that should help this colt today. He’s also trying to get a win at Tampa while prepping for his debut at Gulfstream Park. He looks to be another first timer who is a contender.
I’ll throw in the 7 Legitimize (15/1 ML) for fourth here. Like the 6 Big Commerce, Legitimize is a Justify sired gelding but this gelding is making his debut. Justify horses have fired on both turf and dirt, but more on the dirt. I don’t think the 7 wins here, but I do think he gets into the top 4 here.
I doubt that you will get 5/2 money on the 4 Going Concern here, but truthfully, I’m about picking winners, whether it is a 1/9 horse or a 99/1 horse, and I am horrible at guessing what the final odds may end up being. Sometimes you do have to eat chalk, and I admit that I tend to stay away from chalk, but doing some extra research lured me in. I’m calling this race 4-6-9-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 4 Going Concern to get off of the losing streak I was on before I left for Las Vegas for the Super Bowl.
Once again, I will recap what I remember of the Super Bowl trip on my Twitch show Thursday night. Best of luck in all your wagers and see you tomorrow with another Quills Picks Winners.
QPW Update Desk
- We at Bleacher Brothers do have an unofficial horse, Uncle Ernie, who our fearless leader A.J. Johnson told me all about last year when I joined the Bleacher Brothers crew. It turns out that Uncle Ernie after wintering in Florida at Palm Meadows Training Center in South Florida. He is entered in Monday’s 9th race at Parx which is an allowance optional claiming race going six and a half furlongs. He drew the rail for this race.
