We go from a track and track name that no one recognizes to one of the iconic tracks in North America for today’s QPW. Today we head to Churchill Downs for their fourth race. We have juvenile filly maiden claimers going a mile on the main track here today.
Churchill Downs Race 4 – Maiden Claiming 20k
We have a bit of a rarity here in this juvenile maiden race today, at least for this time of the year. There are 11 fillies entered in this race and we only have one horse, the 8 Scarlet Sky (15/1 morning line) who has not raced yet. Maybe it is just me or maybe just the way that luck has it, but we do have a maiden race here in these young fillies’ careers where only one of the 11 are making their debut.
The tepid favorite in the race is the 7 Fun To Run (4/1 ML). She went two turns at Horseshoe Indy and faded on the final turn of this off the turf race. She might be on the lead again here at Churchill in this one-turn one mile test.
The 10 Cruz Chica (5/1 ML) has been near the lead in her two dirt races at Churchill and Keeneland. She was a victim of a front runner drawing off at Churchill last month, and then 10 days ago she tired in the stretch at Keeneland. She will have an outside post here which means she will probably be at the hip of the leaders in the long backstretch run into the turn.
The 2 Lovebug (9/2 ML) gave way in the final furlong of a seven-furlong test at Keeneland 19 days ago. Her best two races have been on the front end. How she finishes today depends on who is on the lead with her, which could be the morning line favorite here.
The 1 Mary Loves Louie (15/1 ML) had all kinds of issues in her last race. She veered out at the start, appeared to steady and then caused another filly to lose her jockey leading to a disqualification. I’m willing to give her a chance here in a race of fillies that have been finishing up the track.
Joe’s Pick
I am thinking that this race is definitely not the best race in the United States today, but I will say that this race is that mental puzzle that I like to talk about from time to time. Mary Loves Louie should have a cleaner trip here. But I think that Cruz Chica will be in a stalking position from that outside post.
Lovebug and Fun To Run will be dueling on the front end here, softening themselves up for the rest of this field. Cruz Chica will win this race over Mary Loves Louie. I’ll call this 10-1-7-2 and my play is $20 to win on the 10. Best of luck everyone!
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