It’s closing week of the Fall Keeneland meet, and the QPW and Also Eligible will be focusing on Keeneland the next few days as we start getting more signs that winter is near. We will squeeze four more days of Autumn out of Lexington before the Kentucky circuit shifts to Churchill Downs on Sunday.
Today, we will look at the seventh race on their eighth race card. Wednesday’s penultimate race is an allowance race on the turf going five and a half furlongs. We have 16 horses entered, with up to 12 horses to run.
Keeneland Race 7 – Allowance
Favored in this race is the 1 Arrest Me Red (7/2 morning line). He went gate to wire at Kentucky Downs at the end of August but he has shown that he doesn’t need the lead in the past. This six-year-old gelding has run in many of the big turf sprint races around the country in his 22-race career.
The 7 Outadore (9/2 ML) is a front running horse that may even be faster on the front end than the favorite. It is hard not to like a horse that is 6 for 10 lifetime on the turf, 2 for 3 at today’s distance, as well as a win and a third in two tries at Keeneland.
A horse that I am interested in seeing draw into the race is the 16 Jean Valjean (9/2 ML). Joe the amateur handicapper would have played this because of the name. Joe the somewhat professional handicapper will like that he has won all three races on the turf, all being turf sprints.
You can completely ignore the Turf Monster at Parx. They moved that race to the main track after a fairly known incident on the maligned Parx turf course earlier that day. He will face tougher here, but if he draws in, he will be on the outside stalking the speedsters, or he might be a part of the pace or actually be on the pace today.
The 6 Mischievous Rogue (8/1 ML) has shown the ability to close on the turf, especially in his last three races off of a layoff. He just missed at Churchill in his June return, won a stake race at Hawthorne, then bounced some at Kentucky Downs. He looks like a stone cold closer in turf sprints and will really enjoy the speed up front here at Keeneland.
The 12 Sosua Summer (15/1 ML) finished fourth to the morning line favorite last time out at Kentucky Downs. He hasn’t shown much in the three races since he won a minor stakes race at the Fair Grounds in January. His best chance is to let the speed develop and close late.
Joe’s Pick
There is a ton of speed in this race. We could have a meltdown pace and have people scratching their heads all over Keeneland and wherever most fans are watching. I will take Mischievous Rogue in an upset here after benefitting from a major speed duel. I think Sosua Summer wakes up today as well.
Since we are unsure of Jean Valjean running, I’m calling this 6-12-16-1-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 6.
The Jean Valjean variable does not affect my top two, but I wouldn’t mind an ego boost of giving my readers a superfecta straight or boxed whether or not that also eligible horse runs today at Keeneland. Whoever you choose today, best of luck!
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