Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct) Race 8
After the upset winner that we selected at Horseshoe Indianapolis yesterday, we head east for a couple of days, and we will take a look at the eighth race on the Belmont at the Big A card here as we have a race that is planned to be run at a mile and an eighth on the inner turf course with a post time of 5:12 pm Eastern time.
We did get rain on the east coast on Thursday night to break the heat wave that hung over the area for the last week. I did hear that the Yankees and Mets game in Flushing had a rain delay last night, and with Aqueduct Race Track in Jamaica, Queens, it is a possibility that this race does end up on the main track. But it has been so dry up and down the eastern seaboard over the last few weeks that they may still be able to run.
If this race is off the turf, take the 9 Peak Popularity (6/5 morning line) who might be 1/9 with this field of turf specialists. She ended her 2023 season up the track in the Mother Goose last October at Aqueduct. Chad Brown horses run well off the layoff, and this might be the ultimate play here as she would have a major advantage over these fillies and mares who don’t scratch out of this race.
The 7 Eternal Silence (2/1 ML) would be the morning line favorite amongst the main body of the field here and returns to the races after last racing in the Valley View back at the end of October. She had all kinds of problems in that race and then took the winter off. If she runs, she has a new trainer in Christophe Clement who wins with 21% of his horses who run under his name for the first time and 22% with horses with over a 180-day layoff. She might like a little bit of give on the turf as well as she will be second race in North America here at Aqueduct after starting her career in Ireland.
The 2 Any Port (10/1 ML) could be either on the lead or near the lead in a race that does not have an obvious speed horse here. She saved ground in her last two races and closed ground well in her last two races at Tampa Bay Downs. Today, it’s Aqueduct where she could be on the lead here.
The 1 Hola Gata (7/2 ML) ran a rare bad race at Churchill Downs at the beginning of the Churchill meet at the end of April. She is a stone cold closer and will definitely be part of the sprint to the finish here if this race at Aqueduct stays on the turf.
The 6 Collaboration (5/1 ML) was about three lengths back in her 2023 finale at Aqueduct. She ran well in her 2023 debut after a long layoff just like today and I am expecting the same here today if this race stays on the turf. She will probably be no more than a few lengths off the pace here like most of her 2023 races.
If this race is off the turf, then you wasted about five minutes reading my thoughts on this race if it stays on the turf. If this is off the turf, the 9 Peak Popularity is my selection no matter what the odds are. Remember, I am here to pick winners, whether it is a 1/9 shot like I had at a race at Pax last week, or 12/1, like the nice winner I selected in the Nobody Listens Handicap at Horseshoe Indy yesterday.
If this race stays on the turf, I will go with the 1 Hola Gata over the 2 Any Port in a race here at Aqueduct which I expect to be a slow pace and everyone sprinting home the final quarter to three-eighths of a mile.
In summary, 1 is my pick if this race is on the turf, and 9 if this race goes to the main track. No matter what my conditional pick is, this is a $20 wager. Good luck everyone!
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