We stay at Keeneland for today’s race. Today’s race is race 8 on their card with fillies and mares running a mile and a sixteenth on the turf course.
Keeneland Race 8
Favored in today’s race is the 4 Saffron Moon (3/1 morning line). She racing for the first time in 2024 after last seen at Churchill Downs last November. Trainer Chad Brown wins 25% of the time with horses with layoffs of six months or me. She should be a few lengths off the pace.
On the outside today is the 12 She’s Lookin Lucky (9/2 ML). She will probably go for the lead here, and if she does not, she will be stalking from an outside position. As long as she is not too far wide on the first turn, she could he in good shape as this field turns for home.
The 3 Mohawk Trail (6/1 ML) returns to the races after a seven-month layoff. She has been prepping at Turfway Park for today’s race. There is cause for concern here with the long layoff, but she will be closing if she is ready to run today.
The 11 Aussie Girl (5/1 ML) races the longest race of her career today. She was on the outside in a Grade 2 race at Kentucky Downs last out and will be there again today. This is the second race after a 10-month layoff, so there is an opportunity to improve here today. She gets some class relief and should be able to handle the extra ground here.
Joe’s Pick
Taking a look at some of the sire stats here, Aussie Girl’s sire Starspangledbanner has his offspring win at an average over 8.3 furlongs. The sire was a sprinter, but his offspring have continued to win as the races get longer. I’ll take Aussie Girl here as she will close to win this race.
I am calling this race 11-3-12-4 and my play is $20 to win on the 11. Best of luck everyone!
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