By Joe Quillen
Sunday 3/3/24 – Santa Anita Race 8 – Santa Anita Handicap
They say when life gives you lemons, make some lemonade. That saying would be perfect for this weekend with all the scratches this weekend on some of the big races yesterday and today. Aqueduct went as expected, but the Fountain of Youth was decimated with scratches. There were a few at Turfway last night, but of course, my initial pick was withdrawn. I think I need some lemonade.
The San Felipe was my original plan for today. Granted, it was only five horses, but I had a plan before really looking into the race. I was going to introduce you to a way to make money real fast without having the IRS get your money. Then came the announcement that huge favorite Nysos was scratched so he could train up to the Santa Anita Derby. Maybe it was the rain that caused the Saturday card to be pushed to today and the heavy favorite to be scratched. But either way, more lemons. Time to switch things up because I need some lemonade!
Even the lemonade will not be that sweet. Maybe that’s a good thing for those that don’t like things too sweet or are diabetic. But I still want to take a race from Santa Anita today. I refuse the bitter lemon that is the San Felipe since that race is down to four runners with Nysos’ defection. Hopefully the Santa Anita Handicap will be the lemonade that we need after a weird weekend.
The Santa Anita Handicap is a classic race in more than just a race running at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter. It has history that rivals any other race in America. But the interest has waned in recent years with races such as the Pegasus World Cup, the Saudi Cup over in Saudi Arabia, and the Dubai World Cup which is at the end of March. But you cannot ignore the history despite the fact that this is a Grade 1 race with a smaller field while the top horses go for the riches of the three races I mentioned before. Once again, more lemons, but we still want lemonade!
The race will still be run and the seven entrants head to the gate around 7:02 pm Eastern time. I have no idea what the track condition will be. I am guessing we will see a fast track, but the weather from what I could tell is going to be cloudy but no rain. The Quills Picks Winners Accu-Guess forecast is predicting a fast track. Maybe some lemonade?
Favored in this Grade 1 is the 7 Newgrange (5/2 morning line). He has run on the front end since his return in October and should be there again today. He’s a Santa Anita specialist, having won five races in seven tries on the dirt with one third.
The 6 Subsanador (5/1 ML) probably needed that last race on opening day and had more time to acclimate to the Santa Anita surroundings. I’m in wait and see mode with him. If he beats me, so be it.
The 4 Salesman (6/1 ML) may be speed here, but it would be better that he is a couple of lengths behind the leaders. He has shown that he can run all day winning a mile and five-eighths race on the Breeders’ Cup undercard as easily as you could imagine. The question here is the positioning.
Reincarnate (#1, 8/1 ML) has been on the front end and he has all kinds of excuses in those last two races before his layoff. He will be adding to the speed at the beginning of this race.
An interesting entry is the 2 Highland Falls (3/1 ML) who runs in his first stakes race in this Grade 1, and if he is good enough, he will have a chance to be there at the end. Also, I’m a fan of Curlin sired horses over a wet dirt track. If the track has moisture in it, this may be my choice.
I think the 3 Mixto (6/1) will contribute to the lead as well, which will allow the 5 Newgate (4/1 ML) to make a move in the end. He showed he can go two turns in graded stakes company last time out in the San Pasqual, and if things go as I think they will, Newgate will roar home the winner here.
This race will finish 5-2-4-6 and my play is $20 to win on the 5. Good luck everyone, and tomorrow, we will change things up a bit with the QPW. Hopefully that lemonade tastes great!
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