After a one-day trip to New York City, we had back north of the border today. Woodbine has four Grade 1 races on the turf today, with three of them with “Win and You’re In” status for the Breeders’ Cup.
I have also gone over these races on “Also Eligible” which is on the Bleacher Brothers’ YouTube, X, Facebook and Twitch channels. Why not join me as well on Saturday mornings as well?
One thing that you will see here today is that all three of the Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” races today at Woodbine is that these races are all mile races on the E.P. Taylor (or outer) turf course. Each of these races are for a different division for the November races at Del Mar.
Woodbine Race 5 – Natalma Stakes (Grade 1)
We begin with the fifth race on the card, and this is the Grade 1 Natalma. We have 13 two-year-old fillies entered for this race, but we have seven entrants who are cross-entered into the Summer Stakes, which is race 9 here today.
Cross-entered and next to each other in the gate are the 3 Nitrogen (10/1 ML) who just missed in her debut going a mile two weeks ago, the 4 Winterberry (10/1 ML) who impressively won her debut on the main synthetic track, the 5 Ready to Battle (20/1 ML) who won an off-the-turf race last month and 6 Will Reign (20/1 ML) who closed well in the Catch A Glimpse on King’s Plate Day.
Also cross-entered is the 9 Latin Fever (20/1 ML) who was wide but made a strong move to win at a huge price at Leopardstown in Ireland to defeat a field of 18. She changed hands after that race to Mark Casse’s barn who has decent numbers on trainer switches and North American debut runners.
On the outside are the 11 Vixen (10/1 ML) who won at this distance at Ellis Park last month and the 12 Thread (20/1 ML) who won an off the turf race at Woodbine last week.
Favored in this race is the 13 Mountain Breeze (5/2 ML) who has been impressive in her races in the UK. She will go around a turn for the first time, but Charlie Appleby would not have this horse in the race if he didn’t think she could win.
The 1 Annascaul (3/1 ML) went gate to wire in her debut at Saratoga and will have the opportunity to repeat that race today with the aid of having the shortest distance around the track.
I think this is about the inside and outside horses. I’ll go with the outside horse to win here. Let’s call this 13-1-9-3 with a $20 win wager on the 13.
Woodbine Race 7 – E.P. Taylor Stakes (Grade 1)
The lone race that we will look at that does not have a win and you’re in status is this race, the E.P. Taylor. We have fillies and mares going a mile and a quarter on the turf.
We have a short field of six with the 2 Moira as the 7/5 morning line favorite here. She was scratched from a race at Woodbine to race and win in the Beverly D last month at Colonial Downs. She closed to win and should have a similar setup here today.
The 3 Fev Rover (7/2 ML) could be off the pace, but was on the front end in the Beverly D and couldn’t hold off Moira. Next to her in the gate will be Full Count Felecia (6/1 ML) who has more consistently been on the front end compared to the 3.
On the outside of this small field is the 6 Cinderella’s Dream (2/1 ML). She will make her move in the stretch and has done that in her two races in North America, winning the Belmont Oaks Invitational at Aqueduct in July, and then last month in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational.
Next to the second choice is the mystery horse Blue Rose Cen (#5, 8/1 ML) who raced at Deauville in France the last two races. Her numbers in Europe do rate well against the US Beyer speed figures on DRF. But it seems like in the vague comments that she hangs or tires near the end of races.
I think this race will be between the two favorites, and I will take Cinderella’s Dream to have the stronger kick to win this race over Moira. Let’s call this 6-2-5-3 with a $20 win bet on the 6.
Woodbine Race 9 – Summer Stakes (Grade 1)
We skip ahead to race 9 for the Summer Stakes, which is the open race for juveniles going one mile on the turf. I would say for the boys, but if you remember from looking at the first Grade 1 race, we have seven (yes, seven!) fillies who are entered in both this race and the Natalma.
The 4 First Resort is cross-entered elsewhere unlike the fillies entered in the Summer Stakes. He is entered for the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill, which is the first race on the road to next May’s Kentucky Derby. He has been working out at Turfway Park, which tells me he will be scratched here.
Favored in this field of 17 juveniles where up to 14 horses will run is the 9 Al Qudra (3/1 ML) who won at Ascot in the UK back in July. He took over in the final furlong to win comfortably that day. He is also dropping 9 pounds for this race which is an old Woodbine betting angle that I would use for first time international runners running for the first time in North America at the Toronto track.
Cairo Caper (#6, 8/1 ML) won the Soar Free on King’s Plate Day and edged past to win. He will stretch out to the mile here today and will probably have a similar trip.
The 10 New Century (6/1 ML) will be shedding 7 pounds today in his first race in North America and won at Salisbury in the UK last month. He was no match for Al Qudra two back in that aforementioned race at Ascot.
I am also throwing the 15 Latin Fever (10/1 ML) in here in case her connections want to run her here. I think she will be able to work an outside trip here and have the ability to close.
I am going to go back to my old Woodbine handicapping angle here. The favorite is removing more weight than the 10, and I think we will go with that angle tonight. Let’s call this 9-10-15-6 with a $20 win wager on the 9.
Woodbine Race 10 – Woodbine Mile (Grade 1)
Our final race that we will look at is the Woodbine Mile, and this race will give the winner an entry in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar.
Favored in this race is the 2 Naval Power (1/1 ML). He returns after a four-month layoff but this is not the longest layoff in his career. He dueled to the finish in the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs and just missed. He’s been training well at Saratoga for this race. Do not worry about the layoff. He won in February in Dubai after not racing for over a year.
The horse with the best chance of ruining the favorite’s return is the 5 Filo Di Arianna (5/2 ML). He had the lead in the King Edward on King’s Plate Day and fought back to win. But he will not have Lasix in this race which could be a concern after a poor performance in a medication free Jaipur at Saratoga.
The 4 Big Rock (6/1 ML) will race for the first time in North America, and like my betting angle I mentioned before, he will carry eight less pounds today. There is concern despite the jockey carrying less weight today as this colt has weakened in his three races this year across the pond.
The 8 My Boy Prince (12/1 ML) failed as a heavy favorite in the King’s Plate three weeks ago but does shorten up from the mile distance here. He has a chance to stalk on the outside and unleash a closing kick when they turn for home.
I am going to try to beat the favorite here in our final race. My Boy Prince fought to the end but could not hold off Caitlinhergrtness in the King’s Plate. I’ll take him in his return to turf with running a quarter mile less here. I’ll take him to upset the favorite Naval Power here in the Woodbine Mile. I’ll call this 8-2-5-4 and my play is $20 to win on the 8. Best of luck everyone!
Check out my stream “The Joe Quills Show” on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays starting at 9 pm Eastern on my Twitch, X and YouTube talking about the latest sports news and whatever comes up; and catch my horse racing show every Saturday at 10 am Eastern on the Bleacher Brothers platforms.