With Tropical Storm Debby wreaking havoc on the eastern tracks the last few days, plans changed quite a bit. Originally, it was going to be Colonial Downs, but a combination of short fields and heavy rains forcing the Arlington Million to Sunday sent me to Saratoga.
Saratoga postponed two races from last Saturday to today (Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes and Troy Stakes). But Debby tracked further inland than was planned earlier in the week. Saratoga cancelled on Friday and moved the Fourstardave, which will be tomorrow’s QPW race unless some last minute change from NYRA occurs, and the Saratoga Derby will now run on Sunday. As a result, I sat here thinking where do I go.
I briefly thought about Canterbury, but their two stakes races were short fields as well. Since next week’s Also Eligible will feature the King’s Plate, the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, I ended up on Woodbine for today’s article and for today’s Also Eligible.
We will look at two races today at Woodbine, the Bison City Stakes, which I did not realize is the second leg of the Canadian Triple Tiara, and we will also look at the Grade 2 Canadian Stakes. Let’s begin by saying ladies first, but truthfully, the race that was carded first, the Bison City Stakes.
Woodbine Race 8 – Bison City Stakes
Favored in this race for three-year-old Canadian-bred fillies is the 7 Kin’s Concerto (2/1 ML) who had the perfect trip behind the front runners and tipped out wide when the opportunity arose and outfinished the other fillies at the wire. Though it was her second career win, it was actually her first time in front at the end of a race, as she won via disqualification in her debut last November.
The 2 A Little Frisky (10/1 ML) finished fourth in the Woodbine Oaks and had a wide trip all the way around. She was five-wide on the first turn then was three wide on the final turn. She has a much better post today going from the 12 to the 2 hole, which I think will be a major benefit today.
The 9 Hurricane Clair (4/1 ML) closed as well as she was six-wide in deep stretch. She had a nice trip but was too far back when she made her move.
An interesting filly here is the 4 Ontario (6/1 ML). She won her debut last month and her connections are taking a swing at this race today. She has to get two and a half more furlongs, but she looks like a type that can get the distance. Her sire Ghostzapper brings great returns with his offspring racing on synthetic tracks, winning 21% of their races. She could be a filly to look at on the tote board today.
With the speed that is in this race (the 5 Lunch With Bernie (12/1 ML), 6 Lookin to Conquer (20/1 ML) and the 8 Stormcast (8/1 ML)), this will set up nicely for the closers. I’m going to beat the favorite here with A Little Frisky. A better trip will help her upset Kin’s Concerto here. I’ll call this 2-7-9-4 and my play is $20 to win on the 2.
Woodbine Race 9 – Canadian Stakes (Grade 2)
Then we had to the turf for the Grade 2 Canadian Stakes, which is the ninth race on the card. This race is a mile and an eighth on the E.P. Taylor (or outer) turf course. There was no racing on the turf on Friday, but since this is a graded stakes race, they will do whatever they can to keep this race on the turf.
This is a one-turn race going nine furlongs with one of the longest turf stretches in North America. It is a European style and not the usual cookie cutter turf course that most tracks have in North America.
We do have three cross entrants in this race. The favorite Moira (8/5 ML) appears to be running in the Beverly D at Colonial Downs on Sunday. Marcus Hersh of the Daly Racing Form reports in his article for the race in Virginia that she was sent in a van down to Virginia by her trainer Kevin Attard.
Second choice on the morning line, the 9 is entered at both Woodbine and Colonial and should be running in Virginia. The 11 Libban (12/1 ML) also appears to be running at Colonial on Sunday as well, and why not in a “Win and You’re In’ race for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare turf?
If all three of these distaffers run at Colonial as expected in the DRF article, then the morning lines mean nothing. So this point forward, I’m not going to mention the morning line odds for this race.
The 4 Forever After All appears to be the mare that will benefit the most with the projected defections. She just missed at Churchill at the end of June in the Anchorage at Churchill and did not miss by much in the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita. She appears to have found her home on the turf after running her first 13 races on either dirt or synthetic, but she will be making her Woodbine debut this afternoon.
The 3 Full Count Felicia could have the front end to herself. She was challenged on the front end down the backstretch and did draw clear on the turn but could not hold off the closers at Woodbine about six weeks ago. She needed that race, and she is 2 for 3 at today’s distance. Will be worth a look in a field expected to have a few scratches. But she could rate as well if someone guns for the lead.
The 2 Millie Girl fanned wide to get third in that same race at Woodbine, the Nassau Stakes. She is a stone cold closer on both tapeta and on turf and could be your choice if you believe there is a speed duel here.
The 10 Fashionably Fab is 8 for 13 lifetime and won in her only appearance on the turf. She just missed last time out in the Grade 3 Trillium on the tapeta at Woodbine and is a three-way photo away six races in a row.
With the potential scratches, this looks like a wide-open race. I guarantee I will not get 15/1 on Fashionably Fab. But she does know how to win and is dangerous here. I’ll take her to win and call this 10-4-3-2 with a $20 win wager on the 10.
Since we have back-to-back races here at Woodbine for today’s QPW, I will go with a $20 double of the 2 A Little Frisky in the Bison City and the 10 Fashionably Fab in the Grade 2 Canadian. Best of luck everyone and catch you tomorrow with racing from Saratoga.
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