By Joe Quillen
It’s Belmont Stakes Day and though the scenery has changed as well as the distance of the final leg of the 2024 Triple Crown, we should have a great race here to close out this five-week rite of passage where young horses become men.
The Belmont today has the Kentucky Derby winner (Mystik Dan) facing the Preakness winner (Seize the Grey). We have Sierra Leone who barely missed in the Kentucky Derby, along with some new shooters and some horses that are looking to bounce back from bad performances.
The Belmont today is at Saratoga and will be here again next year while Belmont continues their reconstruction project. Because of the configuration of the track, the race was shortened to a mile and a quarter. The race will be on your local Fox network (not NBC) with a 6:41 pm Eastern time post time.
The 9 Sierra Leone (9/5 morning line) is favored in the final leg of the Triple Crown today, and we know from looking at his races and his performance in the Kentucky Derby is that he is a stone cold closer and the distance will have zero effect on him.
The 10 Mindframe (7/2 ML) was very impressive on the Kentucky Derby Day undercard facing winners for the first time. He went gate to wire at Churchill but didn’t need the lead in his Gulfstream debut winning by almost 14 lengths. He will have to get another furlong and a half today but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities to see him going gate to wire if they want to gun for the lead with closers Honor Marie (#8, 12/1) and Sierra Leone to his left.
The 6 Dornoch is a horse that will probably go to the lead here. His best races have been on the lead, but he did rate at Monmouth. But I think with recent history he will be at or very close to the lead but if he has a slow start like he did in the Derby, he will show he does not like dirt in the face again.
The 1 Seize the Gray (8/1 ML) went gate to wire on a track that was favoring speed Preakness weekend long. Mystik Dan (#3, 5/1 ML) could get a very similar trip in the Kentucky Derby here. Dan won the Derby riding the rail, which was the same way we won the Southwest at Oaklawn, but he tipped to the outside of Seize the Gray who floated back out in the stretch.
The 2 Resilience (10/1 ML) had a chance to win the Derby but tired some in the stretch. He should be stalking the leaders again today.
The 4 The Wine Steward (15/1 ML) and the 5 Antiquarian (12/1 ML) were top two in the Peter Pen at Aqueduct in May with Antiquarian winning. They both have a chance here, but they have to step up to defeat the likes of Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone.
The 7 Protective (20/1 ML) is a maiden taking on the top of the three-year-old class right now. He has progressed nicely, but I don’t see him winning. But does Todd Pletcher see something I don’t?
The question here is who will be on the lead. Seize the Gray hadn’t been on the lead in a while and shocked everyone in the Preakness. Dornoch has the go for the lead mentality. But Mindframe might go for the lead with the two horses being stone cold closers behind him looking to make one major run at the end when the others are struggling in the final furlong.
I think Mindframe will go gate to wire here with Mystic Dan, Sierra Leone and Honor Marie all flying. Let’s call this 10-3-9-8 and my play is $20 to win on the 10 Mindframe. Good luck everyone!
Check out my show “Also Eligible” on Saturday mornings at 10 am Eastern/7 am Pacific as AJ Johnson and I discuss the big races, the latest news in horse racing and much more!