After a couple of days in New York, we head to Churchill Downs for Stephen Foster Day, which is the last big day of the spring Churchill Downs meet. I thought I’d look at a few of those races as their meet comes to an end tomorrow.
There are six stakes races on the card and we will look at the final four races of the card, which consists of the American Derby, the Kelly’s Landing, the aforementioned Stephen Foster and the Tepin Stakes. We will begin with the ninth race, the American Derby, as it starts the final pick four of the afternoon.
Churchill Race 9 – American Derby
We start with the Churchill races here with the American Derby, and the 3/1 morning line favorite in this field of eight here is the 1 Green Light. He takes on winners for the first time after destroying an overmatched maiden field last time out. He vied two-wide and drew off to win by 10 lengths. The question is whether or not he is a candidate for a bounce here or he is the real thing.
Green Light could be loose on the lead here as most of these other horses have been closing from the back recently. The 7 First World War (4/1 ML) won the Penn Mile at Penn National last month closing from the back of the pack to win in a blanket finish after checking at the beginning of the race. He was closer to the pace early in his career, so would he try to stark the favorite?
The 4 Lagynos (9/2 ML) shortened from running 9 furlongs to today’s mile and a sixteenth here at Churchill and had a chance but could not keep up with the winner at the beginning of the month. He has run two great races at today’s distance and should enjoy the cutback in distance here.
The 8 Brilliant Berti (8/1 ML) won two in a row on the Churchill lawn. She broke the maiden on Kentucky Derby week and then survived some issues last time out three weeks ago to win an optional claimer. This would be the logical next step for this colt, but we are looking at a race with lone speed here.
The prospect of the 1 being loose on the lead is too much for me here. I’ll go 1-4-8-7 here.
Churchill Race 10 – Kelly’s Landing Stakes
Next is the Kelly’s landing and once again we have eight horses going six and a half furlongs on the main track. The 5 Hoist the Gold is favored here (3/1 ML) and he comes back after finishing third to front running National Treasure in the Met Mile at Saratoga. He appears to be near the front like was at Churchill on Kentucky Derby Day going seven furlongs. But I am concerned that he hasn’t finished well in his last four races.
The outside horses the 7 Angkor (5/1 ML) and the 8 Bango (6/1 ML) appear to be the horses going for the lead here. Bango won this race last year, but I think these two will cancel each other out, and possible the morning line favorite.
The 6 Closethegame Sugar (7/2 ML) won the Aristides at the beginning of the month here at Churchill and could get a similar trip here in his third race off of the layoff.
The 1 Anarchist (6/1 ML) may need a race, but he could be dangerous at what I think could be double digit odds.
The 4 Tejano Twist (4/1 ML) will be further back and will be trying to pass everyone in the stretch. He shown the same pattern over and over again since he returned to the races in November and the only had race was the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on Derby Day. Otherwise, he’s been very close and is the horse I like here.
I’ll call this race 4-6-5-1.
Churchill Race 11 – Stephen Foster Stakes
The featured race of the day at Churchill, and this article is the Stephen Foster as older horses will go a mile and an eighth on the main track. Favored is the 2 First Mission (6/5 ML) who won the Alysheba last time out at Churchill going away and has run well in his last two. He will be close to the front here.
The 9 Skippylongstocking (5/2 ML) who was near the pace and drew off in the Oaklawn handicap in mid-April. He’s been training in Florida for this race and has become one of the better older horses in the country right now.
The 4 Disarm (6/1 ML) won what appears to be a glorified workout last month in his return to the races at Churchill against three other horses. He will face tougher and more horses here, disregard the fact that he was on the lead last time but he could step up here and win this race from off the pace.
The 1 Pyrenees (12/1 ML) was a rare off the pace winner at Pimlico in the Pimlico Special. He’s usually closer to the pace or on the lead, but I would not be surprised if he ends up being there in the end.
I think Disarm will return to his three-year-old form here and upset the favorites here. I’ll call this 4-9-2-1.
Churchill Race 12 – Tepin Stakes
The Saturday finale is the Tepin going a mile on the turf. We have 11 three-year-old fillies going here. Favored is the 8 Pipsy (7/2 ML) who want last to first winning the Soaring Softly at Aqueduct last month in her North American debut. We will see if she can handle two turns here today.
The 9 Dancing n Dixie (9/2 ML) has closed well in her last three starts facing Grade 3 and Grade 2 company in Florida, and just missing on Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill in the Edgewood, a Grade 2 race. This is a strong race for a non-graded stakes, and she might be the strongest of the closers here.
The 5 Poolside With Slim (5/1 ML) was close to the pace in the Penn Oaks at the end of May and won as the favorite. She will face tougher here, but she might get first run in the stretch.
The 2 Mo Fox Givin (10/1 ML) closed well two back in the Appalachian at Keeneland and the ran a good race in the Edgewood on Kentucky Oaks Day. She might be a longer shot here that could at very least hit the board.
This going to set up for the closers. I want a closer who is proven going two turns. I’ll take Dancing N Dixie over Pipsy, but I would not be surprised if Pipsy does get the mile distance here. I’ll call this 9-8-2-5 in the Tepin in the Churchill Downs finale.
Here’s a summary of my wagers for today.
Win wagers (all $20 to win)
- Race 9: 1
- Race 10: 4
- Race 11: 4
- Race 12: 9
Pick 4 (50-cent increment)
- Race 9: 1
- Race 10: 4,5,6
- Race 11: 4,9
- Race 12: 2,8,9
Pick 4 will cost $9
Good luck everyone!