By Joe Quillen
Keeneland Race 10 – Lexington Stakes
It’s Saturday and though the field for the Kentucky Derby is pretty much set for this year, we still have one final race from Keeneland as we complete the road to the Kentucky Derby with the Lexington Stales which will go a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.
This last chance race will give the winner of the race 20 points. This race has final game of the NBA or NHL vibes as the 5 Hades(7/2 morning line) is in “win and you’re in” mode here. He has 30 points from his Holy Bull win but needs to win this race after not showing much two weeks ago when what we think is the real Fierceness showed up in the Florida Derby. Hades does add blinkers today, so he might be gunning for the lead here to get into the Derby in three weeks.
We also have the 8 Encino (5/1 ML odds) who earned 20 points for his Battaglia win at Turfway Park last month. He needs a win and help, like my Flyers in the NHL, to get into the race as he will need someone in the top 20 to not go to Louisville in three weeks. He does have some nice works, but this is the first time that he is running on dirt.
The 9 Liberal Arts (4/1 ML) has 19 points and also needs someone to not run if he wins today. He had issues in the Arkansas Derby, and like Hades, is running on short rest to try to get some points and pray to get in. He is a stone cold closer who could pick up the pieces if things fall apart.
The rest of the horses have different reasons to run. The Wine Steward (#2, 5/2 ML favorite) might end up in the Preakness or Belmont if he wins this race. He’s working well for his debut after just missing here last fall.
There are some that are here for other reasons, like the 4 Footprint (10/1 ML) who could end up making everybody’s plans go up in smoke. He was closer to the pace in the Rushaway at Turfway last time out, but he has shown he can be closer to the pace or be further back. How he is placed here could help make this race very interesting.
In the end, I’m concerned about Hades and Liberal Arts coming back so quickly. I do not think anyone from this race ends up in the Kentucky Derby in three weeks unless a ton of owners do not run on the first Saturday in May. I think Footprint shocks everyone here and holds off The Wine Steward. I’ll call this 4-2-8-5 and my play is $20 to win on the 4. Good luck everyone!
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