Another day, another article about the races at Keeneland. I could get used to this! Today, we will be looking at two races today. We will begin with the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, which is the last race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Then we head to the grass for the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley.
Keeneland Race 9 – Lexington Stakes (Grade 3) – Background
We begin our races today with the Lexington, and this is what has been deemed a last chance race when the schedule came out last summer. However, with the way everything has fallen into place this year, this has turned into a prep race for other three-year-old races, including the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
Right now, the cut off to get into the race in three weeks stands around 50 points. None of these horses entered has more than six points, so unless there are a ton of defections between now and when the field is officially announced in two weeks, these horses are looking at the Preakness, Belmont or other three-year-old races around the country.
Lexington Stakes Field
We have nine horses entered but expect at most a field of seven in this mile and a sixteenth race. The 4 Rolando and the 9 Touchy both ran in the seven-furlong Lafayette Stakes on Monday. Maybe if they were on the bubble it would be considered, but in this day and age where owner and trainers pick and choose races for optimal performance, these two horses will be scratched.
The 7 Praetor (2/1 morning line) is favored in today’s race. He comes in from Gulfstream where he returned from a five-month layoff to win from on the pace. He will go two turns for the first time today and is second race off the layoff.
The 6 Gosger (7/2 ML) will also be second race off of a layoff and also will be going two turns for the first time today. He won from off the pace in his debut then won on the front end at Gulfstream in February. He should be able to get this distance, but the favorite could be hounding him from the start.
The 3 Bullard (9/2 ML) returns from a three-month break where he missed time after spiking a fever before the Rebel at Oaklawn. He goes two turns for the firs time as well, but he has shown closing ability. This colt is the son of Gun Runner which suggests that he will love two turns and the added ground.
The 8 Hypnus (6/1 ML) will shorten up after running in the Louisiana Derby last month at the Fair Grounds. He did not do much in his last two races and looks to get back on track here today. Today will be about whether or not he can show the closing kick he had in his debut.
Joe’s Lexington Pick
This race looks like the two favorites could be winging it on the front end. If they go too fast, which I think they will with both of them never going two turns before, this will set up for the closers. Bullard probably has the best chance with his breeding and his ability so far closing at the end of races.
I will call this race 3-8-7-6 with a $20 win bet on the 3.
Keeneland Race 10 – Jenny Wiley Stakes (Grade 1)
We then head to the grass for the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes. Nine older fillies and mares are entered and the favorite is the 1 Excellent Truth (5/2 ML). She is racing first time for Chad Brown after racing last year in France. This mare raced on the front end in her last two races in Deauville and had a first and a second. She had raced in the past from off the pace, so she might show her versatility here today.
Next to the favorite is the 2 Choisya (4/1 ML) who is two for two this year after two wins on the turf in Dubai. She showed a devastating kick in those two races. A closing kick like that again today will lead to a Grade 1 win in her first North American race.
The 6 Jabaara (9/2 ML) had all kinds of traffic issues last time out in her first race of 2025 at Wolverhampton on their synthetic track. She ran very well on the turf in 2024 and returns there today. If she does not have any major traffic issues, she should be able to handle the transition to North American racing.
The 7 Kehoe Beach (7/2 ML) only knows one way to run and that is on the lead. She did win three races in a row to close out her 2024 campaign. She has run well fresh, but how will she do with some of the closers in this race?
Joe’s Jenny Wiley Pick
I admit that I had to do a ton of digging for the three horses racing in America for the first time today. Choisya looks like a mare could be flying late and passing horses even if the pace is turtle slow. She could be challenged in the stretch by Jabaara. She was crying for room last month and couldn’t get any luck or room. Look for these two mares to be there at the end.
I’m thinking Kehoe Beach and Excellent Truth will be right beside each other on the front end today and might cancel each other out.
I’m calling this race 2-6-1-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 2. Let’s add the daily double starting with the Lexington as well. Let’s go with the 3 Bullard in the ninth race with the 2 Choisya in this race. That 3/2 double will be for $20 as well, In the event either horse is scratched, I will not have a backup daily double today.
Best of luck in all your wagers today and I will see you in the winner’s circle!