By Joe Quillen
The second part of the final round (if I can call it that) of the Kentucky Derby prep season takes us to Gulfstream Park for the Florida Derby, and the Arkansas Derby in Arkansas. Both races are 100 points to the winner, unless Muth wins the Arkansas Derby since he is a Bob Baffert trainee. Both races are also a mile and an eighth as we will see who gets their ticket punched for Louisville in five weeks.
Florida Derby
We will begin with the Florida Derby which is the first Kentucky Derby prep race held in the United States as the UAE Derby was held this morning US Eastern time. As I said the other day, I will not be handicapping that race, but keep an eye on that race as the winner should be coming to Kentucky for the Derby.
But back here in the United States, we have the Florida Derby where the horses will be going one lap or a mile and an eighth on the main track. This race is the finale of a 14-race marathon card with a post time of 6:42 pm ET.
Favored here today is the 10 Fierceness (8/5 morning line) who has the points to run in the Derby thanks to his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win but needs this race after a disappointing third as a heavy favorite in the Holy Bull. He needs this race and has been training well. He is probably going to gun for the lead with the far outside post which is not good in two-turn races at Gulfstream, but if you remember, Forte was on the far outside last year but got up in time to win last year’s running of the Florida Derby.
The 2 Hades (7/2 ML) made it hell for his opponents in the Holy Bull, using his rail trip on the front end to a victory, and will probably get the same type trip here today. Dornoch isn’t running until next week, so that’s a blessing in disguise for the 2 today. Could he have the same type trip today?
The 9 Conquest Warrior (3/1 ML) won an optional claimer four weeks ago, but it was at today’s distance. He has won two in a row, and is making the obvious step up to get the points he would next to get in since this is his first foray into stakes company here. He will probably be a few lengths behind Hades and Fierceness here. But we have that outside post to contend with here as well.
The 6 Le Dom Bro (15/1 ML) is an interesting horse here. In his four races at Gulfstream, he has finished second every time. He’s got the tactical speed to be there at the end, and could be pouncing on the leaders if the front runners go too fast.
Grand Mo the First (#4, 15/1 ML) finished third in that strange Tampa Bay Derby three weeks ago where they had the tote issues and the race was run as a non-wagering event. He was stalking behind a very slow pace and finished third by a neck in a blanket finish. He is going to be running in the end looking to pick up the pieces.
In the end here, I think that Hades will have a big advantage over Fierceness having a better post position here. You would think that a horse on the far outside in a large field going a mile and an eighth can’t win the big race two years in a row, right? I will stick with Hadeshere. I will call this 2-6-4-9, and my play is $20 to win on the 2.
Arkansas Derby
We have ten horses going the mile and an eighth here in Hot Springs and slight favorite in the big race is the 7 Muth (8/5 morning line). He has been away since January 6 when he won the San Vicente. Bob Baffert loves to ship his horses to the Arkansas road to the Kentucky Derby, even if he cannot get points for his horses to get in the race. He will probably be not that far off the pace and looking to pounce here. Win or lose, I would expect Muth at Pimlico in mid-May.
Muth should be not far from the leaders here or possibly even on the lead since there is no obvious front runner here. It will be interesting how he will be placed here.
The 2 Timberlake (9/5 ML) has the most recent race among the three favorites in today’s race. He is probably going to have a similar trip as Muth but being in the two-post today, his similar trip should lead to less ground having to cover in today’s race. Timberlake could have a monster race here with his second race off of the layoff which would be perfect timing with the Kentucky Derby in five weeks.
The 9 Mystik Dan (5/2 ML) has two wins by large margins and then three losses. He was a shocking yet impressive winner of the Southwest Stakes in early February, being able to relax off the lead and then draw off in the stretch to win by eight lengths. He could potentially do the same thing today, but something tells me he is going to bounce after that impressive performance.
If there’s any horse that might go for the lead that is not the three favorites, it might be the 4 Time for Truth (20/1 ML). He went two turns for the first time running a fast opening quarter mile, but he was even on the lead in his first two races which were six furlong sprints. No matter where he is, I don’t see him lasting.
A potential longshot that could really make things interesting is the 5 Liberal Arts (15/1 ML) who closed for third while Mystik Dan drew off. He could be closing into this field if these horses go too fast on the front end.
This race looks like a race that is very top heavy and will be hard to make money on. I think Timberlake will take advantage of the better post and hold off Muth today. I’ll call it 2-7-5-9, and my play is $20 to win on the 2. Good luck everyone!
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