After those two races at Gulfstream Park, we head to Oaklawn and take in the two biggest races on their 14-race card. First, we will look at the Fantasy Stakes for the fillies going a mile and a sixteenth in Race 12. Following that will be the Arkansas Derby, which will go a mile and an eighth in race 13.
There is a possibility of rain in the overnight hours leading up to today’s races, so there is a chance the main track could be something other than fast today.
Let’s begin with the fillies as they look to get into the Kentucky Oaks.
Oaklawn Park Race 12 – Fantasy Stakes (Grade 2)
Favored in the Fantasy Stakes is the 7 Simply Joking (8/5 morning line). She is 2 for 2 lifetime after answering a few questions last time out in the Silverbulletday at the Fair Grounds. This filly answered the two-turn question and a wet track with flying colors. Note that Drexel Hill won in New York four weeks ago in an Oaks prep race at Aqueduct. So Simply Joking could be improving off of that win in New Orleans in January.
The 1 Take Charge Milady (6/1 ML) lost any chance at the start of the Honeybee here at Oaklawn, getting squeezed at the start. She wants to be closer to the pace and not getting bumped around at the start will solve that problem. Look for her to stalk here today.
The 5 Quietside (2/1 ML) won the Honeybee Stakes here at Oaklawn last month pressing the pace on the leader that day. She was able to put things together at today’s distance and will look to win her second race in a row to get into the Oaks on the first Friday of May.
The 10 Runnin N Gunnin (20/1 ML) won the Sunland Park Oaks last month while wide on the final turn. The heavy favorite Maysam lost all chances at the start but came back to win at Santa Anita a few weeks later. Runnin may have had a gift that day, but she still had an impressive move will wide. Don’t be surprised if she gets at least a piece here.
Joe’s Fantasy Stakes Pick
Take Charge Milady lost any chance getting squeezed at the start of the Honeybee and having to run from the back of the pack. She will get the job done here over Simply Joking in the stretch here today. I’m calling this race 1-7-5-10 and my play is $20 to win on the 1.
Oaklawn Park Race 13 – Arkansas Derby (Grade 1)
We reach the main event here at Oaklawn as the boys will take center stage in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. We have nine horses going a mile and an eighth to earn a spot to the Kentucky Derby.
Favored in the Arkansas Derby is the 9 Cornucopian (7/5 ML). He won his debut going six furlongs here at Oaklawn. In most cases, Bob Baffert likes to go maiden race to optional claimer going two turns to a stakes race. But time is of the essence, and Bob doesn’t have time to do that if he wants this horse in the Kentucky Derby.
He will have some company on the front end with the 5 Speed King (15/1 ML) on the inside. But Cornucopian may be too fast for Southwest Stakes winner.
The 8 Coal Battle (7/2 ML) has won four races in a row and will look to add the Arkansas Derby to his Rebel and Smarty Jones wins here at Oaklawn. Speaking of Smarty Jones, I said to Parx announcer Jessica Paquette on X that I am getting Smarty Jones vibes with this colt. You don’t have the owner story like Smarty did in 2004, but you have a jockey and trainer who we have gotten to know along the Arkansas road to the Derby.
The 6 Sandman (3/1 ML) finished third in the Rebel here at Oaklawn, closing in on Madaket Road who runs at Gulfstream today. He is another colt that could be closing here.
The 3 Publisher (6/1 ML) was squeezed at the eighth pole but still closed mildly to finish fourth in the Rebel. He needs points here today and should have a better chance without any problems like he had in his last two races.
Joe’s Arkansas Derby Pick
I admit, there is something magical going on down in Hot Springs. Coal Battle has won impressively in each of his last four races yet is not the favorite. Why? Because Bob Baffert brought Cornucopian here last month who put on a show going six furlongs. If he beats me here, so be it.
I am going with the story here and Coal Battle. He has found ways to win on the front end in the Smarty Jones and from off the pace in the Jean Laffit at Delta Downs, Springboard Mile at Remington and the Rebel here at Oaklawn. Coal Battle has his spot in the gate for the Kentucky Derby. But he will put an emphatic stamp on his road to the Kentucky Derby with another win here.
I’m calling this 8-6-9-3 and my play is $20 to win on the 8. Let’s also threw a double in Race 12 of the 1 Take Charge Milady with the 8 Coal Battle for $20 as well. Best of luck everyone and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!