Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 11/30 – Churchill Downs Races 9-12

We head to Churchill Downs for Stars of Tomorrow Day II, which is a card with just two-year-olds running. This has become a staple underneath the Twin Spires over the last few years. There’s a day at the start of the meet and at the end.

The meet ends Sunday, so they are holding the special card today. We also have two races that will count towards the standings in the 2025 Road to the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby.

Churchill Downs Race 9 – Golden Rod Stakes (Grade 2)

We begin with the Golden Rod as juvenile fillies will go a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.  This is a Road to the Kentucky Oaks race, and the winner will get 10 points in the standings with less points for second through fifth.

Heavily favored is the 3 Good Cheer (4/5 morning line). She already has three trips around two turns having won at Horseshoe Indy and here at Churchill. She won the Rags to Riches on Stars of Tomorrow Day 1 last month drawing off nicely. This filly will take a ton of win money here and rightfully so.

Churchill Downs

The 4 Quietside (3/1 ML) finished third in the Alcibiades to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Immersive. She will not have that champion running today, but she has another monster on her hands today. It looks like this was more Immersive’s powerful move than an excuse for Quietside. If there is one, it might be the short stretch of the layout of that race.

The 1 Eclatant (5/2 ML) goes two turns for the first time today. She may be a pacesetter for the favorite since they are both trained by Brad Cox. Eclatant’s sire does get 6.8 furlongs per win out of his offspring, and they win 19% of the time versus a 14% average in two-year-old route races.

There’s not much else in this race, but this is about Good Cheer here. I’ll call this 3-4-1 with a $20 win play on the 3.

Churchill Downs Race 10 – Fern Creek Stakes

Next is the Fern Creek, and these juvenile fillies will go six and a half furlongs on the main track. Favored in this field  of 11 is the 1 Echo Sound (2/1 ML). She lugged in some in the Myrtlewood last time out at Keeneland but drew clear in the stretch. She showed a strong kick in that race and will look to do it again here today.

The 4 Shisospicy (9/2 ML) won her debut over an overmatched field at Gulfstream last month. There is a ton of speed in this race, but if she gets the lead like she did last month, look out.

Churchill Downs

The 9 Impulse Buy (5/2 ML) shortens up after finishing second in the Tempted at Aqueduct. She stumbled at the start and could not catch the winner. She broke her maiden two back by winning by 11 lengths, so that may be a good sign going shorter here.

The 5 Praying (12/1 ML) could not hold off today’s favorite last time out in the Myrtlewood. This filly’s sire Vekoma has his offspring winning 23% of the time with his first crop of runners. This could be a good be a nice longshot to play here.

I am going to take a swing with Shisospicy here. I don’t think she is Kentucky Oaks material, but if she runs like she did at Gulfstream, those thoughts may go through their owners’ heads. I’ll call this 4-5-1-9 with a $20 win play on the 4.

Churchill Downs Race 11 – Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Grade 2)

It’s the boys’ turn to earn some points on the Kentucky Derby trail here as we have 10 juveniles going a mile and a sixteenth here. Once again, the winner will get 10 points, and second through fifth gets points as well.

The 6 Clock Tower (10/1 ML) will be scratched according to Marcus Hersh of the Daily Racing Form. He will run in a turf stakes at Del Mar on Sunday.

The 2 Jonathan’s Way (5/2 ML) is favored among the remaining nine entrants. He won the Iroquois here in September earning 10 points but showed little in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s won from off the pace as well as up front, so we will see what way he runs today.

Churchill Downs

The 3 Tiztastic (5/1 ML) finished second in the Street Sense here at Churchill at the start of the meet. He has won twice on the turf but might be just as good on the dirt. Only time will tell for that. Note that he comes out of the first crop of Tiz the Law’s offspring, so we have yet to see how his horses run going long, especially on dirt.

The 9 Render Judgement (12/1 ML) broke his maiden here at the beginning of the meet stalking and taking over in the stretch to win at this distance. If there is a speed duel that develops here, he might be the candidate to pick up the pieces.

The 8 First Resort (9/2 ML) comes in after running in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes on the turf at Woodbine. He has won on the dirt already and will try to see if he can go a route of ground on the main track.

I am going to take Tiztastic here. I think the Tiz the Law offspring are going to run well going long once his offspring are given the opportunity. I’ll call this 3-2-8-9 with a $20 win play on the 3.

Churchill Downs Race 12 – Maiden Special Weight

The finale is a maiden race going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track as well. We have 16 entered with a maximum of 12 horses running here,

Favored in this race is the 4 Kalahari Dreams (3/1 ML). This Country House colt will go two turns for the first time here today after sprinting twice at six furlongs here at Churchill.

The 3 Limited Edition (7/2 ML) finished third in his first two turn race under the Twin Spires. He will definitely love the distance here and should have an opportunity to improve off of that last time out.

Churchill Downs

The 6 American Promise (9/2 ML) ran well going this distance here at Churchill. He might have found his running style on the front end just like his daddy Justify did to win the Triple Crown.

The 9 Burnham Square (15/1 ML) should like the added ground here today for his second career start. This gelding closed well to just miss while going very wide in the race. If he can get closer to the rail he might be dangerous.

I want to go American Promise here, but I will let him beat me if he can replicate what he did last time out. I’ll go with Limited Edition holding off Burnham Square in the finale. I’ll call this 3-9-4-6 with a $20 win play on the 3.

Joe’s Pick 4

Some of you know I like to dabble in pick 4’s and I’ll take a swing on this one to end the month of November. My play:

  • Race 9: 3
  • Race 10: 1,4,5
  • Race 11: 2,3,8
  • Race 12: 3,4,9

That is a $13.50 ticket on a 50-cent increment. Best of luck to everyone!

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