It’s a big day of racing all around the United States as the stakes schedule is littered with “Win and You’re In” races. Today we will take a look at Keeneland’s stakes races, which conveniently are races six through ten today.
We have three “Win and You’re In” races in Lexington today, plus two additional races which could see some horses head west for the first weekend in November.
Keeneland Race 6 – Woodford Stakes (Grade 2)
We begin the stakes portion of the card here with the Grade 2 Woodford Stakes. This field of 15, where up to 12 horses will run, will go five and a half furlongs on the turf course.
We have cross entries in this race, which is expected with all these Breeders’ Cup prep races. Axthelm (#2, 15/1 morning line) is cross entered into the Belmont Turf Sprint at Aqueduct.
The 7 Let My People Go (30/1 ML) is cross entered into the ninth race at Woodbine which is a six-furlong turf sprint. He’s still a longshot there
Cross entered in the also eligible list is the 13 Determined Kingdom (20/1 ML) who is also entered in the Belmont Turf Sprint and the 14 Hedwig (30/1 ML) who is entered for an allowance race on Sunday at Keeneland.
These cross entries could allow the 15 Foxtrotanna (30/1 ML) into the field, but he would be shocking everyone if he wins.
Favored is the 8 Souper Quest (7/2 ML) who will gun for the lead and play catch me if you can. He got caught in deep stretch on closing day at Saratoga in the Harvey Pack.
The 6 Nobals (9/2 ML) did not return until July after his Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint win. He is 0 for 2 so far this year, but that Kentucky Downs race was not that bad. The best turf sprinter drew off in that race. We will see how fit he is after he ran up and down the hills there last month.
The 5 No Nay Hudson (5/1 ML) took over at the top of the stretch after running very wide on the turn but could not hold off a pair of stone cold closers in the Green Flash at Del Mar. Trainer Wesley Ward is a mind boggling 1 for 39 with graded stakes horses. Could this gelding make that 2 for 40?
The 10 Arzak (6/1 ML) finished fourth in the Harvey Pack last month at Saratoga. He won the Shakertown back in April here at Keeneland and a similar trip should help. But he does have an outside post.
I think Nobals’ race last time out was sneaky good against the best turf sprinter in racing right now. He will get back on track with a win here. I’ll call this 6-10-5-8 and my play is $20 to win on the 6.
Keeneland Race 7 – Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (Grade 2)
We have our first “Win and You’re In” race here with the TCA. The winner gets an all expenses paid trip to Del Mar for the Filly and Mare Sprint.
Favored in this sprint race is the 3 Brightwork (2/1 ML) who won the Grade 3 Prioress at Saratoga in her 2024 debut. She has won every sprint race that she has run in her career, including a win here sprinting here at Keeneland.
The 1 Clearly Unhinged (3/1 ML) could not hold off the winner at Charles Town last time out. She only has one less furlong to run and one less turn to negotiate, as Charles Town’s seven-furlong races are two turns. She will be near the pace today.
Zeitlos (#6, 4/1 ML) went from last to first to win at Churchill three weeks ago and will look to do the same here today at Keeneland. Looks like the setup might be there to close again today.
The 4 Spirit Wind (7/2 ML) faded last time out at Charles Town but has won both on the lead and stalking. She has won both on the lead and stalking. The latter is preferred here today, but she looks like she will be part of the rush to the lead.
Thinks set up nicely for Zeitlos here and she is my selection here. I’ll call this 6-1-3-4 and my play is $20 to win on the 6.
Keeneland Race 8 – First Lady Stakes (Grade 1)
Up next is the First Lady Stakes and fillies and mares go one mile on the turf course here. Favored is the 4 Gina Romantica (3/1 ML). She just missed in her last two races at Saratoga. She is two for three on the Keeneland turf lifetime and looks to repeat after winning this race last year.
The 10 Ag Bullet (6/1 ML) won the Ladies Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs about five weeks ago going gate to wire. She will try to do the same here today, but next to her is Whitebeam (#11, 7/2) who will gun for the lead as well.
The 8 Chili Flag (6/1 ML) won three in a row before throwing in a clunker at Saratoga back in July. She is back here today looking to close like she has in those three wins.
The 2 Tarawa (9/2 ML) won two of her last three, including last time out at the end of August at the Curragh in Ireland. She talked the pace and took over and drew off in the final two furlongs of that race. If she stalks like she did in her last in Ireland, she will have first chance to take over in the stretch.
I am hoping Tarawa does not take that much money but she will find a way to win here. I’ll call this 2-4-8-10 with a $20 win wager on the 2.
Keeneland Race 9 – Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1)
The next to last race that we will look at is the Breeders’ Futurity, which is a race for two-year-olds going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Winner of this race will get the invite to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile next month.
Drawing the rail is the favorite Ferocious (#1, 8/5 ML) who finished second in the Hopeful at Saratoga last month. We will see if he can get the two turns here today but he should be not far from the pace and looking to take over when they turn for home here.
The 4 Handsome Pants (10/1 ML) already has a two-turn race on the main track under his belt, winning his debut at Churchill last month. I also like that he defeated a field of 11, because you never know what could happen with larger fields. He closed well and will look to do that again today.
The 8 Big Boat (20/1 ML) drew off to win his debut at Churchill last month sprinting. His sire Nyquist won the Kentucky Derby so stamina should not be a question. He could be on the board here.
The 10 Dapper Moon (9/2 ML) won at Saratoga on closing weekend and will look to improve off of that seven-furlong race. He should be able to handle the extra distance here and may pull off the mild upset.
Ferocious will be tough to beat, but I am taking a chance here with Handsome Pants after already going today’s distance. I’ll call this 4-1-8-10 and my play is $20 to win on the 4.
Keeneland Race 10 – Turf Mile (Grade 1)
We have nine entered in our finale, the Coolmore Turf Mile. Favored is the 9 Carl Spackler (2/1 ML) who won his last two races including the Grade 1 Fourstardave. He will be stalking from his outside post and looking to replicate that win here in his Keeneland debut.
The 1 Mountain Bear (6/1 ML) closed well at Leopardstown in Ireland last time out after being bumped around and squeezed back at the start. He will make a late move to win here. Also, this horse comes to America and races with nine less pounds today than that August in Ireland.
The 2 Kikkuli (4/1 ML) closed well at Newbury last time out and finished fourth in a blanket finish. He will also have a nice weight change at well carrying seven less pounds.
The 6 Talk of the Nation (8/1 ML) bounced back after faltering at Colonial in the Arlington Million with a nice performance in the Mint Millions at Kentucky Downs. We will see how fit he is here after negotiating the hills at Kentucky Downs.
Carl Spackler will have the best to win here obviously as the favorite and his positioning, but I think this will be a Euro 1-2 as I will go 2-1 here with Kikkuli closing swiftly to win over Mountain Bear. I’ll call this 2-1-9-6 and my play is $20 to win on the 2.
Best of luck everyone and we’ll be back tomorrow with another QPW!
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