Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 10/26 – Keeneland Races 7-10

Today is closing day in Lexington, and today will look at the final four races on their card. This sequence closes the fall season here at Keeneland. We have two graded stakes here as part of the final four races.

Keeneland Race 7 – Allowance

We begin with the seventh race, which is an allowance race for fillies and mares going one mile on the turf course. An overflow field of 15 fillies and mares was drawn today.

Keeneland

Favored in this race is the 11 Kehoe Beach (9/5 morning line). Those that will see in the program that she was cross entered in the ninth race on Friday, she was scratched there to run here today. She ran gate to wire winning an allowance race at Kentucky Downs last month. She has shown in all five starts that her intent is to gun for the lead.

The 3 Neom Beach (9/2 ML) is second race off of the layoff and also returns to the turf course today. She showed she can finish well on the turf in her last two races at Horseshoe Indy and Penn National in stakes company.

The 7 Strike When Ready (12/1 ML) won two in a row on the grass but will have to improve to hit the board here. She has shown in her last two races that she can close. She also was scratched from the Friday feature to run here today.

Keeneland

The 4 Belle of Rights (6/1 ML) was off the board in her return from a two month break last out at Colonial Downs. She needed that race and should be in contention here.

This race appears to have lone speed in the favorite Kehoe Beach. I will take her to win this race going gate to wire. I’ll call this 11-7-3-4 with a $20 win play on the 11.

Keeneland Race 8 – Fayette Stakes (Grade 2)

Next is the Fayette with 10 horses entered for this mile and an eighth test. The 8 Hit Show (2/1 ML) is favored. He has was won three of his last four including the Lukas Classic at Churchill last month. He has shown this year a consistent closing kick to win.

The 2 Tumbarumba (6/1 ML) will be at or near the lead here. He is second race back off of a three-month break, but is he more suited for the mile distance?

The 6 Rattle N Roll (4/1 ML) returned from an almost one-year layoff to finish third in the Lukas Classic. He has won twice in four tries at Keeneland and should improve in his second race back today.

The 7 Heroic Move (6/1 ML) returns from an almost three-month break today after looking a close one to Hit Show at Mountaineer in August. He does have a trainer that wins at on 18% clip with horses with a layoff of 61 to 180 days. If he is ready, he will be there at the end.

It is a good sign that Rattle N Roll is back after a long layoff here. He won at Keeneland on the second race after a layoff in April 2023. I say history will repeat itself again today. I’ll call this 6-8-2-7 with a $20 play on the 6.

Keeneland Race 9 – Bryan Station Stakes (Grade 3)

We have another overflow field here in the Bryan Station Stakes, which is the closing day feature. We have three-year-olds going one mile on the turf course.

Favored is the 11 Trikari (2/1 ML) who closed well in the City Of Hope Mile at Santa Anita finishing fourth. He was a neck away at Penn National of winning four races in a row  on the turf over the spring and summer. He will be close to the pace here today.

The 6 Brilliant Berti (7/2 ML) will be a couple of lengths behind the favorite here. He has won four of his last five races, all on the turf. He edged clear to win the Gun Runner at Kentucky Downs last month and should be there at the end today.

The 3 Herchee (12/1 ML) has traffic trouble in the aforementioned Gun Runner but still finished second. He is a first-time gelding today if you are into that handicapping angle. Also, with a cleaner trip, he can upset this field.

The horse I have been interested with since he popped up on the QPW is the 5 Demolisher (15/1 ML). He is five for five lifetime, but they were all at Horseshoe Indianapolis. He is taking the next logical step by going to Keeneland here, but will be taking a huge step up facing graded stakes company here. If he is loose on the lead here, he could shock everyone today.

Trikari will be tough today, but I think that Herchee will get a cleaner trip on the stretch today to upset this field. I’ll call this 3-11-6-5 and my play is $20 to win on the 3.

Keeneland Race 10 – Maiden Claiming Race

The final race of the day and meet is a six-furlong sprint for juveniles here. Some will be maiden claiming and think of a Monday or Tuesday at Parx or Finger Lakes with some of the races they run. But this basically is a maiden special weight. If you have $150,000 laying around underneath a cushion or two, you could own one of these horses.

Favored in the finale is the appropriately named The Chalk (#9, 3/1 ML). He faded in a turf sprint back in July after having his hind legs clipped by an oncoming horse. He has had issues at the start in both races, but comes back from a three-month layoff that included becoming a gelding.

The 2 Tom Cat Tuesday (6/1 ML) was not a factor in his debut at Churchill last month. But that was a fast running of the race and he will appreciate having that race under his belt today.

The 12 Winter Creek (4/1 ML) comes back from a two-month break and shortens from a two-turn mile to today’s six furlongs. He has the chance to go gate to wire here in the finale.

The 5 Thunderhawk (6/1 ML) also shortens from two turns to one here and had to steady on the first turn. He is another horse that will probably go for the lead here today.

I think Winter Creek will have an opportunity to sit right at the hip of Thunderhawk or anyone else who will go for the lead and break his maiden here. Let’s call this 12-2-5-9 and my play is $20 to win on the 12. Best of luck everyone!

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