We are two weeks away from the Breeders’ Cup and we still have some big races around the country. Today, we will head back to Keeneland for today’s Quills Picks Winners and Also Eligible.
We will look at the final four races on their card, with two graded stakes races on the card – the Grade 3 Perryville in race 7 and the Grade 2 Raven Run in race 9. Both races are seven-furlong races on the main track.
Keeneland Race 7 – Perryville Stakes (Grade 3)
We begin our afternoon in Lexington today with the Perryville Stakes, a Grade 3 Perryville Stakes. We have a field of 14 three-year-olds here with up to 12 horses running. We can scratch the 10 Locked from this race. His trainer Todd Pletcher said in a Daily Racing Form article that he will be running in the opener at Aqueduct today.
The 5 Book’em Danno is the 2/1 morning line favorite and rightfully so. He has run in some very fast races this year and will be ready to pounce as they turn for home. He just missed in the H. Allen Jerkens in August at Saratoga in a very fast race. He could have the set up to win this easily today.
The 3 Knightsbridge (3/1 ML) is two for two lifetime with huge wins in each outing. There is a bit of a red flag here with him because this is the first race since the end of March. This Godolphin owned horse faces graded stakes company in his return to the races and should be at or near the front end today.
The 7 Patriot Spirit (15/1 ML) returned to the races in September at Colonial after winning the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne in April. He won his return easily over an overmatched field in an optional claimer. He will have to progress further, but he does have a chance here today.
The 1 Henro (12/1 ML) won the Harrods Creek at Churchill last month and will be running a similar race here today, hopefully not four-wide like he was last time out.
This is about Book’em Danno here and he should win this here today. Let’s eat some chalk in our opener. I’ll call this 5-7-1-3 in the Perryville.
Race 8 – Allowance
We head to the turf course for the first time in this article as we have 13 horses entered with a maximum of 12 horses running.
Favored in the eighth race is the 10 Dripping Gold (3/1 ML). He easily won his last race at Kentucky Downs last month. He shortens up a quarter mile after that win at a mile and five-sixteenths and should be very fit off of that win.
The 3 Irish Aces (9/2 ML) drops in class after two stakes races in about ten days at Kentucky Downs. He may have come back a little too soon in the Mint Millions but will like facing this group today. He should be closer to the pace compared to the favorite today.
The 12 Taking Candy (7/2 ML) just missed in the Bernard Baruch at Saratoga last month. He has three wins at today’s distance lifetime and will like the distance again today. He will have a spot near the front stalking the front runners.
The 1 Paros (8/1 ML) has found a home on the turf over the last year. He has won three in a row from off the pace at Aqueduct and Saratoga. He is four for seven on the turf since moving to the grass in May 2023.
Dripping Gold appears very beatable here. I’ll try to beat him with the 12 Taking Candy. I’ll call this 12-3-1-10 with a $20 win wager on the 12.
Keeneland Race 9 – Raven Run Stakes (Grade 2)
We have 10 fillies entered in the Raven Run here. The 4 Twirling Queen (10/1 ML) was scratched from the fifth race at Belmont at the Big A on Friday, so do not worry about that cross-entry notice on the DRF programs. She is a front running horse here or won’t be too far off.
Favored in the Raven Run is the 5 Emery (7/5 ML) who comes into this race off of a 10-week layoff. She finished second to Ways and Means who would be one of the top two selections in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint in two weeks. She will be stalking the pace here and looking to take over in the stretch.
The 3 My Mane Squeeze (4/1 ML) comes into this race after winning the Grade 3 Dogwood at Churchill Downs last month. She has faced some of the top three-year-old fillies like Thorpedo Anna, Leslie’s Rose and Ways and Means over the course of the year. She will still have to face Emery here today, but she won’t be too far off the lead here today.
The 6 V V’s Dream (8/1) returned to sprinting after an almost six-month layoff after trying to qualify for the Kentucky Oaks. She needed that last race where she finished third. She had a close second in last year’s Alcibiades Stakes and should like the track again today She should be no more than a couple of lengths off as well.
I like My Mane Squeeze to win the Ravens Run here today and I think V V’s Dream will be dangerous here as well. I’ll call this 3-6-5-4 and my play is $20 to win on the 3.
Keeneland Race 10 – Maiden Special Weight
The finale on Keeneland’s Saturday card is a one-mile maiden race on the turf for juvenile fillies. We have 16 fillies entered, and once again, up to 12 horses will run here.
Favored in the finale is the 3 Running Away (9/5 ML). She runs for Wesley Ward who is very good with his juvenile horses and horses coming off of the layoff. All the criteria for this horse for this race (layoff time, second start as a maiden, two-year-olds) are off the charts. She should be on the lead and may not be caught here today.
Put a line through the last race for the 10 Birkin Girl (5/1 ML). She had a nice debut at Ellis Park in her debut in August, but 17 days later, showed little at Kentucky Downs, which happens to many horses on that hilly European-style course.
The 7 Evelyn Louise (6/1 ML) had to take up around the 5/16 pole in her last race at Kentucky Downs. She should be able to improve here, but this is a tough group of juvenile fillies here at Keeneland.
The 1 Fixin to Bee (12/1 ML) was bounced around in her last race at Kentucky Downs. She will go a mile for the second time here and appears to be progressing despite the fourth last time out.
I am taking a shot on beating the favorite here. I think Running Away is going to be very tough here, but I am taking Birkin Girl to win the finale. Let’s call this 10-3-7-1 and my play is $20 to win on the 10.
Joe’s Pick 4
I thought I would add the pick 4 here since this appears to be a difficult set of races. Here is my pick 4:
- Race 7: 5,7
- Race 8: 1,3,12
- Race 9: 3,5,6
- Race 10: 3,7,10
This ticket as laid out here for you right now is a $27 ticket for a 50-cent increment. Best of luck everyone!
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