If you saw the end of yesterday’s QPW article, I did give you a heads up that today will be dedicated to the newly minted three-year-olds as more Kentucky Derby prep races are held. Today, we will look at two that will be for Kentucky Derby points, and a third which is a precursor to Florida’s Road to the Derby.
We will start at Aqueduct with the Jerome, where eight are entered to go a mile and end with the Smarty Jones, which is a mile and one-sixteenth race at Oaklawn. We will also take a look at the Mucho Macho Man, which is not a points race, but may give us a preview of things to come at Gulfstream Park.
Aqueduct Race 8 – Jerome Stakes
We begin our day with the Jerome as eight three-year-olds will go a one-turn mile today. The winner of this race will get 10 points towards the standings, second through fifth will receive from five down to one point.
Favored in the Jerome is the 8 McAfee (2/1 morning line). He won his debut impressively at Churchill closing while wide. He drew the rail near the end of the Churchill meat and was closer to the pace going today’s distance. This colt looked like he didn’t want to shoot through the hole along the rail, but when he finally got through, the horse on the outside got his nose down in time. An outside post here today will help Thorpedo Anna’s little brother today.
The 7 Studlydoright (5/2 ML) shortens up from racing here last month at Aqueduct in the Remsen. He tired as he raced wide on both turns of the nine-furlong race. Already racing in his eighth race, he will look to bounce back from that race today.
On the lead in this race could be the 2 Mansetti (10/1 ML) who races for the first time on the dirt after three races on synthetic at Woodbine. With him should be the 5 Georgia Magic (10/1 ML). Both these horses are stretching to a mile today and have gunned for the lead in their races.
The 6 Cyclone State (7/2 ML) has won two in a row at Aqueduct on the front end here, but I think he might try to rate behind the leaders after setting slower fractions going the one-turn mile here at Aqueduct. He drew off to win break his maiden in November and then won an optional claiming race going the same distance. He will get the same distance today but with some hard-hitting stakes horses here.
Joe’s Aqueduct Pick
If Cyclone State can rate he will win this race. I am going to let McAfee beat me here. Studlydoright will enjoy the cutback here but we’ll see if he can bounce back. I’m going to take Cyclone State here today. I’ll call this 6-8-3-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 6.
Gulfstream Park Race 10 – Mucho Macho Man Stakes
Up next today is the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, and though this race is not a Kentucky Derby prep race, it is possible we have some of these horses continuing on the trail either at Gulfstream or elsewhere around the country.
The 1 Guns Loaded (5/2 ML) draws the rail and favoritism in this race. He was on the outside when he broke his maiden and went to the front and never looked back. There is other speed to contend with here today as he stretches out, but we will see if he can step up here today.
The 3 McKellen (5/1 ML) stalked the pace down the backstretch last time out at Churchill going the same distance as today. He lugged in at the top of the stretch and was veering back and forth. But he was not catching the winner that day. He should he stalking again today and shouldn’t be as green as he was in the stretch last time out.
Wearing the green saddle towel is the 5 Cool Intentions (9/2 ML). He comes into today after winning an allowance race here at Gulfstream. If a speed duel does develop from Guns Loaded, the 2 Macho Music (8/1 ML) who tired at Keeneland last out and possibly Rolando (#7, 15/1 ML). He can pick up the pieces on the turn and as they turn for home here.
The 6 Septarian (3/1 ML) won his first two races at Charles Town and Laurel before being sold in what appears to be a private sale after that win in November. He could also add to the speed up front, but I would think Chad Brown will try to get him to settle behind the leaders in this race. He had two months to learn the horse for the logical next step in this horse’s brief career.
Joe’s Gulfstream Pick
I really like how this is set up for Cool Intentions. He has three races over the Gulfstream track already and will go back to racing a mile which is where he broke his maiden in November. He also could end up on the trail to the Derby as his sire Authentic, the 2020 Kentucky Derby winner, is already getting 7.2 furlongs per win on average from his offspring as his first crop have just turned three years old.
I think he gets the perfect trip and blows by Guns Loaded and Septarian by the eighth pole. I’ll call this 5-3-1-6 and my play is $20 to win on the 5.
Oaklawn Race 9 – Smarty Jones Stakes
The final race that we look at today is the Smarty Jones Stakes, and eight will contest the mile and sixteenth race. Like the Jerome Stakes, the winner of this race gets 10 points towards the Kentucky Derby standings.
Favored in the Smarty Jones is the 6 Hot Property (8/5 ML). He comes into this race after winning his debut race at Fair Grounds back in November. He drew off to win going the same distance as today’s race. Flavien Prat rides, who set records for most stakes wins and most graded stakes wins in a calendar year in 2024.
Drawing the outside is the 8 Coal Battle (9/2 ML). He is three for three lifetime on the dirt including getting 10 points for his win in the Springboard Mile last month at Remington Park. If he can get a fast pace here today, he could make what is becoming a patented closing move in the stretch like he has done his last two races on the dirt.
The 1 Kale’s Angel (2/1 ML) won the Advent Stakes here and will go two turns on the dirt for the first time today. He passed his first dirt test at Oaklawn going six furlongs, but now he needs to answer this question today. Can he go two turns? Only time will tell.
Keep an eye out for the 3 Optical (12/1 ML). If McAfee runs well in the Jerome today, then we could throw him in at least in the exotics. He was on the outside of three horses in the stretch at Churchill and held off McAfee to win that starter allowance test. He has shown that he can win going this far, having won twice already going a mile. But is he a Churchill “horse for course” or can he transfer how he ran at Churchill to Oaklawn?
Joe’s Oaklawn Pick
I’m tempted to go with the hot jockey and Hot Property with Flavien Prat aboard. I’m also tempted to take Optical, especially if McAfee impresses in New York. But I am going to take Coal Battle who is a proven closer on the dirt. Even if he doesn’t get a hot pace here, he has a great chance to make it three in a row today.
I am calling this race 8-6-3-1 and my play is $20 to win on the 8. Best of luck everyone, and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!