Saratoga Race 9 – Coronation Cup Stakes
It’s race day number two at the Spa, and today’s featured race at Saratoga Race Course is the Coronation Cup Stakes, which is a race for three-year-old fillies going five and a half furlongs on the turf. It looks like this race will stay on the turf after the races on Thursday were taken off the turf after rain hit Saratoga Springs early on Thursday.
The weather should be fine, and I am expecting a firm turf course for today’s race at Saratoga. If this prediction is true, then the main track only entrants of number 11 Value Area (4/1 morning line), 12 Do Gooder (9/2 ML) and the 13 Golden Degree (7/2 ML) will all be scratched. If this race is off the turf, then I’ll take the 13 who had back-to-back impressive wins at Aqueduct in May and June.
Favored in today’s race is the 10 Star of Mystery (9/5 ML) who will be running for the second time in North America, with the last being a third-place finish against the boys in the Grade 1 Jaipur on Belmont Day. She is cross entered into the Quick Call Stakes which runs at the same distance as today but is for $25,000 more and has a Grade 3 rating on it.
In that race on Sunday, Star of Mystery will run against the boys, which is not a problem. She beat the boys twice in Dubai, each beating a 13-horse field, and finished second against the boys in her final two Dubai races. If she runs here instead of Sunday, she will be heavily favored facing straight three-year-olds and her own gender. If she races Sunday, she might get a soft or yielding turf since rain is forecasted for Saturday.
The 7 Kairyu (15/1 ML) had nowhere to go from the quarter to the three-sixteenths, but when get got room and took off, only to lose a faster charging Pipsy (#4, 6/1 ML) who won the Soaring Softly over the 7 and then did not show much trying to get the mile distance at Churchill two weeks ago. The latter filly looks like a speed horse who closed in the Soaring Softly out of necessity, while the former looks like a closer.
There is going to be a lot of speed on the front end here. I think the 2 In Our Time (30/1 ML) will be on the front end with Pipsy, the 5 Twirling Queen (8/1 ML), the 6 Ever So Sweet (5/1 ML) as well as the 8 Baraye (10/1 ML). If we get a meltdown scenario like we did in the Schuylerville yesterday, this could be screaming closer, possibly lighting the Saratoga tote board up like a Christmas tree.
The 9 Cloudwalker (6/1 ML) has closed well in all her races, with the last being last month at Churchill Downs. I would consider her here to be at the very least in the money.
The 1 Toupie (8/1 ML) closed well to win the Stormy Blues at Laurel. She has closed well in her last two races after a five-month absence.
I am thinking that this race is going to be a closer winning this race here at Saratoga. If the 10 Star of Mystery runs here, she has an extreme class advantage. But I am going to try to beat her with a stone cold closer here in the 7 Kairyu. I would love to see this filly’s odds float up higher to get a greater return on my investment. Let’s call this race 7-10-1-9, and my play is $20 to win on the 7. Good luck everyone!
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