We stay in New York for today’s QPW, and the conditions of this race are very similar to yesterday. We have New York-breds going a mile and an eighth on the inner turf course. This is the open race equivalent to yesterday’s fillies and mares race that we featured.
We have 10 horses entered today, but we will have up to seven running if this race stays on the turf. The 8 Pandagate (6/5 morning line) who would be a huge favorite if this runs on the dirt), the 9 Olympic Dreams (4/1 ML) and the 10 Cicciobello (9/2 ML) are waiting to see if they will run today or not.
Belmont at the Big A Race 8 – Ashley T. Cole Stakes
Favored amongst the turf entrants is the 6 City Man (8/5 ML). He was close to the pace here but could not get by the heavy favorite in the short field in the West Point at Saratoga nor the winner of the race, Dakota Gold.
The 3 Dakota Gold (9/5 ML) needs some horses to go for the lead here to set up his closing kick. He got that last month at Saratoga winning the West Point, but it does get harder to win from as far back as he will be when there’s little to no pace to run into.
The 7 Jerry the Nipper (5/1 ML) is the key to this race. If he guns for the lead just like he did in the West Point, that will allow Dakota Gold and City Man to renew their stretch run last time out. If he goes slower, then he can steal this race.
Coming back to New York is the 5 Saratoga Flash (6/1 ML). He did not show much in two graded stakes at Woodbine, but those were sprint races. He gets to go two turns today in this nine-furlong race. When he has raced a mile or longer, he consistently gone for the lead. This should allow the two favorites to close effectively here.
Joe’s Pick
I’m guessing this race is going to stay on the turf. There has been occasional rain here in Philadelphia, but New York did run yesterday on the turf. I’m guessing the same thing here today.
I think Dakota Gold and City Man will get the pace scenario they need to close here. Jerry the Nipper and Saratoga Flash will go to the lead and set things up for the two favorites. I think Dakota Gold will get the win here over City Man once again. Let’s call this 3-6-5-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 3.
If this race is off the turf, then play the 8 Pandagate. He has no distance limitations and will have a big advantage over the other horses.
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