Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct) Race 7
I’m back. Did you miss me? I’m back after a couple of days off hoping to break my cold streak that I left you with on Sunday and we get an interesting race here at Aqueduct in the Belmont at the Big A spring meet here as we have three-year-olds and up going one mile on the main track here.
We do have a couple of interesting variables here. First, we have a three and up race where these horses are all three-year-olds, which happens from time to time, and we also have rain in the forecast, so plan accordingly to prepare for this race running in sloppy conditions at the Big A.
The 7 Military Road is the 2/1 morning line favorite here, and he comes in after finishing second by less than a length going around two turns for the first-time last time out at Gulfstream Park. Despite not winning in his first three races, he has run well at the one-turn mile in Florida before coming up north within the last 10 days. Quality Road sired horses win 16% of the time on the off going, so he should not miss a beat today.
The 8 True Connection (8/1 ML) ran well two races ago in March going today’s distance in the mud, closing well to Society Man who almost stole the Wood Memorial at 106/1 odds before throwing a clunker in the Kentucky Derby. True Connection’s sire Connect’s offspring may only win at 10% on wet surfaces, but he does have Curlin as a grandsire who I consider a superior off-track sire of his generation. So, there may be something to say about that race two back.
The 4 Commander of Truth (5/1 ML) comes back after an eight-month layoff here. He got the opportunity to grow up a little bit so if that is part of the reason why here then we could see him bounce back. He’s going the mile for the first time while coming off of that layoff which could be tricky. But trainer Chad Brown has superior numbers in all trainer categories here with horses coming back after 180 days, maiden’s second start, first time Lasix, and more. He did have some nice works here as well leading to his return to the races.
If we are going to mention Chad Brown’s “other” horse in this race, then we have to mention the 9 Unmatched Wisdom (7/2 ML). He might have been the four’s training partner prepping for today because the workouts are not only on the same day for the last few times out training, but also the same times. I will argue that if one does well, then the other should follow suit.
Military Road is going to be tough here, but I am going to take a swing at True Connection here upsetting the field here. He shortens up here, and that might get him to the winner’s circle today. I’ll call this 8-4-7-9, and my play is $20 to win on the 8.
Also, check my show out “Also Eligible” on Saturday morning at 10 am Eastern/7 am Pacific as AJ Johnson and I will discuss our thoughts on the Kentucky Derby as well as looking ahead at a pair of races: The Peter Pan from Aqueduct, and our first look at Monmouth Park on their opening day as we will look at the Long Branch Stakes.