We are staying in New York for today’s eighth race there. Three-year-old fillies race a mile on the inner turf course today in the Grade 3 Pebbles Stakes. Ten fillies are entered for this turf stake, but like yesterday, we do have two entrants who will be scratched since they are entered for the main track only.
Race 8 – Pebbles Stakes (Grade 3)
Favored amongst the fillies planning to run on the turf is the 6 Oversubscribed (2/1 morning line). She is second race off the layoff and gets some major class relief. We last saw here at Keeneland last month in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup where she faded to sixth. She gets the benefit of shortening up and not having to be close to the pace today.
Setting the pace today is the 7 Macanga (7/2 ML). She only has one way of running, which is go to the front and don’t look back. The rabbit tactics almost worked last time out here at Aqueduct in the Grade 2 Sands Point. She was caught at the wire last month.
The 4 Whiskey Decision (8/1 ML) did have some trouble in her last race in the Winter Memories. She had to be taken up shortly after crossing the finish line the first time and was also fighting with the jockey because she wanted to run close to the front. She has shown that pattern of being close to the pace before that race so there may be a return to that tactic.
The 3 See You Around (8/1 ML) races in North America for the first time here today after an almost three-month freshening. First, that race at Deauville in August was a right-handed turn race, not a straight race if you look at the Daily Racing Form PPs.
She is with a trainer who wins 24% of the time with horses with him for the first time. What I like about this filly the most is that she has been facing larger fields than the one here in the Pebbles. She has races in fields of up to 15 entrants, so remember that angle that I like to play from time to time.
Joe’s Pick
We do have a “rabbit” in the race today in the 7 Macanga. But we don’t have one in the classic horse racing sense. We don’t have a horse that sets things up for a stablemate who picks up the pieces at the end. But we do have a filly here who will go out and see if she can steal this race on the front end.
Sometimes you do have to eat chalk from time to time, and I am going to do that hear today with the favorite Oversubscribed. She is the best filly in the field here. Her running style will benefit her when Macanga and potentially Way to Be Marie (#8, 9/2 ML) potentially duel on the front end today.
I’m calling this race 6-4-3-7 with a $20 win play on the 6. It may not get us making a profit for the month, but sometimes you have to take the small wins before you can get those giant wins. Best of luck everyone!
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