It’s Breeders’ Cup Friday and today the juvenile horses will be center stage for today’s races at Del Mar. The final five races of the Del Mar card are the races that we will handicap today.
I did look over the races last night on my show The Joe Quills Show on Twitch, X and YouTube and gave some thoughts on those races. Here are my official picks for today’s races with my thoughts like I do normally.
Del Mar Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
The Breeders’ Cup festivities begin with the Juvenile Turf Sprint. These horses will run five furlongs on the turf course here. Note that for these sprint races, the field is limited to 12 runners.
We do have a scratch that was announced earlier in the week. The 1 Out On Bail has been scratched. When this article was posted, we still need one more scratch.
Favored in this race is the 8 Ecoro Sieg (7/2 morning line). He is a bit of a mystery horse here. I was unable to find videos of these two races in Japan. He shortens up from six to five furlongs today. He has already broken a 23-year-old track record. But with the limited information here, it will be interesting to see where his win odds end up today.
One thing I do like his is maiden win in August. I’m always a fan of playing horses who ran in massive fields. He defeated a field of 18 in his debut. He will be facing at the most 11 other horses today.
The three horses who ran last at Doncaster in the UK. Once again, hard to read the program, but at least there is video available on different platforms.
The 2 Aesterius (9/2 ML) was near the front and passed Magnum Force (#4, 15/1 ML) in deep stretch for the win. The 3 Big Mojo (4/1 ML) could not get past Aesterius at the finish.
Next to that triumvirate is the 5 Arizona Blaze (15/1 ML). He may not have faced the class of horses some of the others in this field have, He was outkicked at the finish of his last race on synthetic at Dundalk in Ireland. Before that, he just missed in a field of 20 at York in the UK.
The 7 Whistlejacket (5/1 ML) is an interesting play here. He lost by 4 at Newmarket, but the winner drew off to win. That horse won again as well. He held on to win at Deauville in France back in August going six furlongs as well. The shorter distance should help here.
I’m thinking we start with a bang here. I think favorite is going to be very tough, but let’s try to beat him with Arizona Blaze. Let’s call this 5-8-2-7 with a $20 win play on the 5.
Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1)
We head to the main track for the first time this weekend with the juvenile fillies. One filly that will not run in this race is the 7 Non Compliant. This Baffert entrant might have been my pick if she ran today.
Favored is the 10 Scottish Lassie (5/2 ML). She showed off her natural speed to win the Frizette at Aqueduct last month. She will be near the pace here or even on the lead here drawing the outside gate here today.
The 9 American Bikini (5/1 ML) is another Japanese mystery horse. Once again, I was unable to find any video of her three races, but she is sired by American Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. The distance should not be a problem and will be facing her own gender for the first time.
The 4 La Cara (12/1 ML) has won two in a row, including the Grade 2 Pocahontas at Churchill Dows. The speed figure was down over her maiden win at Saratoga, but she should love the added distance here today after the wide trip in September.
The 3 Immersive (3/1 ML) won the Alcibiades at Keeneland last month stalking the pace and taking over in the stretch. If there is a speed duel up front, she will be the filly to take over.
I would not be surprised if this is all Scottish Lassie but I am taking the “mystery filly” American Bikini here. I’ll call this 9-4-10-3 with a $20 play on the 9.
Del Mar Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)
We have 17 fillies entered for this mile turf test, with 14 horses running. We don’t have any scratches from the body of the field as of this moment.
Favored is the 1 Lake Victoria (8/5 ML). She is 4 for 4 lifetime and has been impressive in the process. She had to deal with traffic last time out but drew off nicely.
The 8 Heaven’s Gate (12/1 ML) has won two of her last three races over in Europe. Was able to close last time out at the Curragh. Also has a race in Ireland where she defeated a field if 21 fillies. Once again, that is an angle I like to play.
The 4 Scythian (12/1 ML) got a dream trip behind front runners in the Miss Grillo Stakes at Aqueduct. She assumed the lead when a longshot bolted and took out two other horses. You could argue she got lucky that day, but she did draw off from the rest of the field who was not affected by the chaos up front.
The 13 Vixen (15/1 ML) just missed in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine in September. She was closing well that day but will need some luck with this wide post.
I think the favorite is way too tough here. Let’s eat some chalk with the 1 Lady Victoria. I’m calling this 1-8-13-4 and my play is $20 to win on the 1.
Del Mar Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1)
We have the main event here in the Juvenile as we have 10 horses going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Also, note that this is a Road to the Kentucky Derby race where the winning will get 30 points. This should ensure the winner of this race will be running under the Twin Spires on Derby Day.
Favored in this race is the 1 East Avenue (5/2 ML). He is 2 for 2 lifetime breaking his maiden at Ellis Park and then winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last month. So far in his two races he went for the lead and told the other horses to catch him if they could.
The favorite will have company on the front end. The 2 Getaway Car (20/1) will be in the stall next to him and could be going with him from the start. Note that this colt already has three races here at Del Mar, so he does know the lay of the land. But the question is will he be able to sustain the speed up front with the speed in this race.
It also looks like the 5 Jonathan’s Way (9/2 ML) and the 6 Citizens Bull (10/1 ML) both have the potential of being on the front end as well. If this scenario happens, we could have a wild finish with horses closing from the clouds.
The 4 Ferocious (6/1 ML) will enjoy a duel up front. He faced East Avenue last time out in a race where today’s favorite was alone on the lead. He could be the first horse ready to pick up the pieces here.
The 7 Gaming (8/1 ML) appears to be the best of the Bob Baffert trained horses and he was able to rate off the pace to win the Del Mar Futurity in September. He could be a horse at a nice price.
But the horse I’m looking at is the 10 Chancer McPatrick (3/1 ML). He is 3 for 3 lifetime, winning from off the pace each time. This colt has progressed nicely in his three races so far showing a consistent knack to close well to win as the races grew longer. He was five wide on the turn at Aqueduct last but was able to win his second career Grade 1 in the Champagne at Aqueduct.
I originally said on Thursday night’s stream that I was leaning towards Ferocious. The way this race appears to set up, I’m thinking Chancer McPatrick will make a move on the final turn like he has in the past and win the Juvenile today. Let’s call this 10-4-7-1 with a $20 play on the 10.
Del Mar Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)
We reach today’s finale which is the Juvenile Turf and as of Thursday night, the 8 Minaret Station, 14 Tenacious Leader, 15 Sabertooth and the 16 Kale’s Angel are all scratched.
Favored is the 11 New Century (5/2 ML) who won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine in September. He closed well after a slow start. He was affected by the bumping and drifting of Dream On (#2, 20/1 ML). Not sure you will want him eight-wide on the tighter turns and shorter stretch at Del Mar though.
The 4 Al Qudra (4/1 ML) also was affected by the drifting and bumping of Dream On in the Summer Stakes. He was second best to New Century in September and might reverse the tables on the favorite with a cleaner stretch run.
The 7 Seagulls Eleven (15/1 ML) tired in his last race at Newmarket in the UK, but it is possible that he did not like the softer turf there last month. A red flag that I raise is that he has not faced a large field like this will be today.
The 5 Zulu Kingdom (8/1 ML) is two for two in the United States and three for three overall. He won his debut in France then won a Grade 3 at Saratoga and a Grade 2 at Aqueduct. He will be closing here.
The race at Woodbine in mid-September looks strong with New Century and Al Qudra. I’ll take the latter for the win here. European horses usually do very well in these races. I’ll call this 4-11-5-7 in the Juvenile Turf with a $20 win bet on the 4.
Breeders’ Cup Streams
Note that I will be live today from approximately 5 pm to 8:30 pm today sidecasting the races today. Tomorrow we will have Also Eligible at 10 am and then I’ll be sidecasting from 2:30 to 8:30 pm Eastern time.
Check out my stream “The Joe Quills Show” Monday through Thursday at 9 pm Eastern Time on my Twitch, X and YouTube talking about the latest sports news and whatever comes up. Also, catch my horse racing show every Saturday at 10 am Eastern on the Bleacher Brothers platforms.