We head out from the heat that is hitting the east coast and head north of the border to a cooler area of the continent to Assiniboia Downs where we will take a look at their sixth race on their card tonight. This race is the Jack Hardy Stakes and this is a seven-and-a-half-furlong race for three year old fillies. This will be a late one for the readers of the QPW, as this race’s post time is at 10:40 pm Eastern time.
Also note that at Assiniboia Downs, this is a two-turn seven-and-a-half-furlong race. Their track is six and a half furlongs in circumference so they will be starting near the top of the stretch and going one lap around the track after that start. So if you are watching Assiniboia for the first time tonight, this will help to explain why the race will start in the stretch for this race.
Assiniboia Downs Race 6 – Jack Hardy Stakes
Favored in this field of nine three-year-old fillies is the 7 Zorina (8/5 ML) who closed four-wide to finish second to the winner She’s My Niece (#2, 2/1) who went gate to wire to win the Chantilly Stakes last time out at the end of June at Assiniboia.
Zorina has only raced this far one time in her ten-race career, and that was back at Turf Paradise in March. I think that six furlongs may be this filly’s limit, but yes, if I was the owner or trainer, I would give this filly another chance going two turns here, granted it is 110 yards shorter than she did in the Arizona Oaks back in March. She was four-wide on both turns that day and that could be a valid excuse for that lone foray around two turns.
The 2 She’s My Niece will be forwardly placed here and may try to go gate to wire like she did last time in the Chantilly here at Assiniboia Downs. She used inside speed that day, and gets a favorable draw to repeat that performance going around two turns for the first time since beginning her career in Southern California. She may not have won going two turns, but she was competitive in those maiden races.
The 1 Dynamic Strike (6/1 ML) won a two-turn seven furlong race two weeks ago at AsD forcing the pace on the outside against older fillies and mares. she is back with her own age group today, but she draws the rail for today’s race. She has run well since reappearing in May at Assiniboia Downs, closing well on the dirt as the races progressed longer each time.
The 9 Under Budget (12/1 ML) could have that stalking outside trip here that Dynamic Strike had last time out. Her sire is the 2017 Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming who gets an average winner of seven furlongs from his offspring. Under Budget should like the longer races here, especially this distance today if she is properly placed today.
I think it is possible that Zorina does not go off the favorite here. Even if she does, I’m tossing her and let her beat me here today. I think She’s My Niece has the potential of being lone speed here. The question is whether she can go this far which may seem longer than today’s distance with the two turns here at Assiniboia Downs. I think she can and the potential of being alone on the lead can be dangerous. I’ll call this race 2-1-9-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 2. Good luck everyone!
QPW Update Desk
- The heat wave continues on the East Coast of the United States. Woodbine Racetrack yesterday cancelled their card, and those that play Parx Racing should be aware that racing on Tuesday has already been cancelled due to heat that could reach 100 degrees with high humidity.
- Parx will also be off the turf this week so if you have a program that indicates a race is on the turf, plan accordingly.
Check out my show “Also Eligible” on Saturday mornings at 10 am Eastern/7 am Pacific on the Bleacher Brothers’ Facebook, X, Twitch and YouTube accounts as AJ Johnson and I discuss the big races, the latest news in horse racing and much more!