By Joe Quillen
We have reached the rite of passage where the three-year-old fillies run under the Twin Spires in the Kentucky Oaks, and I thought I would give some initial thoughts on the fillies entered.
#1 Tapit Jenallie (30/1)
- Broke maiden impressively in her debut race at Remington Park in September while three wide down the backstretch
- Won the My Trusty Cat Stakes at Delta Downs in race 2 of her career. She bobbled at the start of the race but recovered nicely with a perfect rail ride
- Did not show much in the Year’s End Stakes on New Year’s Eve at Oaklawn
- Went for the lead and tired down the stretch in the Martha Washington at Oaklawn. Might question distance limitations after this race when she faded to the left towards opponents in the final furlong. Race run on a sloppy track
- Run a much better race in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn. Got squeezed on the first turn and bumped by Lemon Muffin in the stretch who won going away. TJ took the lead on the far turn and was passed by the winner in the stretch
- Finished third in the Fantasy (G2) at Oaklawn to get the points to run. Did not have the speed at the start as in some of the previous races, and passed tiring horses in the stretch
Tapit Jenallie should love the longer races as Tapit horses (her sire) excel as the races go longer. Maybe that comes later on in the three-year-old year and beyond. Just don’t see it here.
#2 Gin Gin (30/1)
- Finished second as a favorite at Horseshoe Indy last August. Showed some interest down the stretch despite a runaway winner in her debut
- Broke maiden at second asking at Churchill in September. She went to the lead, was challenged on the turn and into the stretch and pulled away late to win by two lengths
- Finished second in the Rags to Riches on a sloppy Churchill Downs main track. Small field here as the winner West Sunset went gate to wire with a fairly slow but mostly uncontested lead
- Showed some interest late in the Golden Rod (G2) at Churchill but was not getting the winner on this day
- Won the Busanda at Aqueduct on a muddy track going the Oaks distance of a mile and an eighth. She settled down the backstretch and powered past the frontrunner to win
- Made a move on the turn in the Busher at Aqueduct, but could not catch up to the leaders on a sloppy track
- Finished third in the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct. Got a fast track but could not catch up to Where’s My Ring who had been close quite a few times and broke her maiden that day, and Regulatory Risk
I have more questions than answers for Gin Gin. Probably going to be a nice horse and could possibly surprise in some races down the line, but don’t see it in the Oaks despite having run a few times at Churchill.
#3 Where’s My Ring (15/1)
- Made a powerful move on the turn in her debut at Del Mar, but was an unlucky loser as Laurent came out of nowhere on the outside to win
- Another move on the turn here in a six and a half furlong race at Santa Anita. Finished third in the race. Did swerve around in the stretch but still had good energy in the end.
- Ran on the turf in the Surfer Girl Stakes (G3) and finished fourth. Made a nice move on the final turn of the one-mile race, but other horses had stronger kicks. Seemed like an experimental race to see if she would like turf
- Showed she was an overmatched maiden filly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies here at Santa Anita. Did not show much here.
- Returns to Santa Anita in December and shows some interest late, but you have a first timer who wins going away.
- Change of tactics as she goes for the lead. Was wide entering first turn. Fought to the finish like we saw in her first few races, but once again, finishing second.
- Finished second in the Santa Ysabel (G3) at Santa Anita to the Baffert trained Kinza. WMR was very wide all the way around but got second late.
- Finally broke through in the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct. Was favored in this race despite being a maiden. Perfect trip along the rail before tipping out near the quarter pole.
Interesting horse here. Took a while to break the maiden. Did so in a race that she needed to get into the Oaks. Could be a longshot play here.
#4 Regulatory Risk (20/1)
- Showed little in her debut at Churchill last September. Continually dropped back through the field
- Finished second to Oaks favorite Tarifa at Keeneland as was a much improved effort. Just was not catching Tarifa that day.
- Went to the lead at Aqueduct and won on what was called a muddy track going the one-turn mile.
- Returned to Aqueduct after a layoff of slightly over two months. Might have needed this race. Did not show much here as he went wide on the final turn of this sloppy race track.
- Better performance in the Gazelle (G3) which gets her the points to run in the Oaks. Stalked the leader down the backstretch but could not keep up with Where’s My Ring in the stretch
Got the points to get into the race, but nothing eye popping that makes me want to place a win wager on her.
Check back as I continue to break down my thoughts on the horses entered in the Oaks.