We head to Aqueduct for today’s QPW and we will look at the Brooklyn Stakes which will be run today at a mile and 3/8. With this race running at Aqueduct this year, the race will be run at today’s shortened distance due to the configuration of the race track.
Brooklyn Stakes (Grade 2)
We have an odds-on favorite in the 6 Next (4/5 morning line) who has become the marathon horse to beat in North America. Since running a mile and a half two years ago in an off the turf stakes race at Delaware Park, he has won six of seven races going a minimum of a mile and a half and has won a race that went 14 furlongs (mile and ¾).
On top of that, he wins my large margins. The idea to run these marathon races came after winning at Delaware Park in the Cape Henlopen against a field that was overmatched once the race went to the dirt by over 18 lengths. Then in his last three races he won by almost 12 last July at Saratoga, 25 at Parx on that horrible weather day in the Greenwood, and then at Churchill in May by 11. I get the feeling of Ivan Drago here and his trainer saying “what he sees, he destroys!”
Next will be at or near the pace today like he always seems to be. The only way I can see him losing today is if he ends up having a bad start and isn’t near the front or is beaten to the front by a few horses.
The 5 Drake’s Passage (4-1 ML) has been at or hear the page in most of his races, but he has run against New York breds mostly, including that win on the front end in the Commentator at Saratoga. He has to go another two furlongs here in the Brooklyn, but can he finally beat open company?
The 3 Crupi (7/2 ML) is a stone cold closer who will have to negotiate another furlong after winning at Saratoga in the Suburban. If he is going to win the Brooklyn today, he will need to close at distances that are harder to close in since horses are usually closer together as the races go longer, saving energy for that stretch run. But this is the second race off of the layoff after returning from a disappointing trip to Dubai.
The 4 Masqueparade (12/1 ML) closed well in the Suburban and will be running the same way at Crupi in the Brooklyn today. He won going a mile and a half in the Temperance Hill at Oaklawn in March. After losing to the favorite at Churchill in May, he came back in the Suburban at Saratoga and just missed. He could be a horse that could be on the board at a huge price.
I want to think that something screwy is going to happen in this race. I would not be surprised if Next romps like he has in his last three races dating back to last year. Next won the Brooklyn last year, and I would not be surprised he repeats like he won his last three races. He is the class of this race and should be pulling away in the stretch. I want to beat this favorite, but I can’t. I’ll call the Brooklyn 6-4-3-5 and I’ll eat a ton of chalk and wager $20 to win on the 6. Good luck everyone!
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